[OANNES Foro] Predicting climate warming effects on green turtle hatchling viability and dispersal performance

[Mario Cabrejos]

Functional Ecology

 <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/fec.2015.29.issue-6/issuetoc>
Volume 29, Issue 6, pages 768-778, June 2015

Article first published online: 2 JAN 2015

DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.12389

 


Predicting climate warming effects on green turtle hatchling viability and
dispersal performance


1.     Catherine Cavallo1,*, Tim Dempster1,Michael R. Kearney1, Ella Kelly1,
David Booth2, Kate M. Hadden3 and Tim S. Jessop1

1 Department of Zoology, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria,
Australia 2 School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St.
Lucia, Queensland, Australia

3 Tiwi Land Council, Winnellie, Northern Territory, Australia.
*Correspondence author. E-mail:  <mailto:ccavallo89 en gmail.com>
ccavallo89 en gmail.com


 


Summary


1.     Ectotherms are taxa considered highly sensitive to rapid climate
warming. This is because body temperature profoundly governs their
performance, fitness and life history. Yet, while several modelling
approaches currently predict thermal effects on some aspects of life history
and demography, they do not consider how temperature simultaneously affects
developmental success and offspring phenotypic performance, two additional
key attributes that are needed to comprehensively understand species
responses to climate warming.

2.     Here, we developed a stepwise, individual-level modelling approach
linking biophysical and developmental models with empirically derived
performance functions to predict the effects of temperature-induced changes
to offspring viability, phenotype and performance, using green sea turtle
hatchlings as an ectotherm model. Climate warming is expected to
particularly threaten sea turtles, as their life-history traits may preclude
them from rapid adaptation.

3.     Under conservative and extreme warming, our model predicted large
effects on performance attributes key to dispersal, as well as a reduction
in offspring viability. Forecast sand temperatures produced smaller, weaker
hatchlings, which were up to 40% slower than at present, albeit with
increased energy stores. Conversely, increases in sea surface temperatures
aided swimming performance.

4.     Our exploratory study points to the need for further development of
integrative individual-based modelling frameworks to better understand the
complex outcomes of climate change for ectotherm species. Such advances
could better serve ecologists to highlight the most vulnerable species and
populations, encouraging prioritization of conservation effort to the most
threatened systems.

 



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