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<DIV><FONT size=4>Sea level rise 'will surpass worst-case scenario'</FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=author>Imelda V. Abano</DIV>
<DIV class=source>11 March 2009 </DIV>
<DIV class=source><A
href="http://www.scidev.net/en/news/sea-level-rise-will-surpass-worst-case-scenario-.html">http://www.scidev.net/en/news/sea-level-rise-will-surpass-worst-case-scenario-.html</A></DIV>
<DIV class="article_content cf">
<P>[COPENHAGEN] Global sea levels will rise much higher than predicted by the
end of this century, climate experts have warned — a scenario which could have
dire consequences for millions of people in the developing world.</P>
<P>Just two years ago, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
predicted a worst-case scenario rise of 59 centimetres. But the accelerated
melting of ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland caused by faster warming means
the worst case is now put at 1.2 metres.</P>
<P>A sea level rise of one metre or more is predicted to have a devastating
effect on major coastal cities, island states and populous delta areas such as
those in Bangladesh and Myanmar.</P>
<P><SPAN>A panel of experts speaking yesterday (10 March) at the International
Scientific Conference on Climate Change in Copenhagen, Denmark, warned that
without efforts to curb the rise of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level rise
would expose most parts of the world to greater storm surges — increases in
local sea level caused by the winds of storms — threatening lives and
infrastructure.</SPAN></P>
<P><SPAN>John Church, a scientist at the Centre for Australian Weather and
Climate Research in Tasmania, Australia, and lead speaker at the session,
explained that the most recent satellite and ground-based observations show that
sea levels are continuing to rise at three millimetres or more per year since
1993 — a rate well above the average in the twentieth century.</SPAN></P>
<P><SPAN>"It is becoming increasingly apparent from our studies of Greenland and
Antarctica that rising temperature has contributed significantly to the observed
sea level rise through thermal expansion of sea water and widespread loss of
land ice," said Church. He said that further warming could trigger polar ice cap
melting.</SPAN></P>
<P><SPAN>"We cannot prevent all sea level rise. We will have to mitigate and
adapt to avert the most extreme scenario. The least developed nations are at
most risk," Church told SciDev.Net.</SPAN></P>
<P><SPAN>Stefan Rahmsdorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
in Germany said that by 2200, the sea level will have increased by an estimated
1.5 to 3.5 metres.</SPAN></P>
<P><SPAN>"Ice sheets are melting faster, and sea level rise is a huge threat
unless we stop the warming," Rahmsdorf told the
press.</SPAN></P></DIV></FONT></BODY></HTML>