Estimado Amigos<div><br></div><div>En la nota que pueden ver en la parte inferior el consejo de metereologia de Australia indica que la probabilidad de la presencia de desarrollo de El Niño se ha incrementado en mas de 50% (superior a lo registrado en los años normales). </div>
<div><br></div><div>Seria conveniente que nuestros colegas en Perú nos indiquen como van sus pronosticos, mas vale estar prevenidos...</div><div><br></div><div>Saludos</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><div>El Nino Risk Is Increasing, Australian Bureau Says </div>
<div><br></div><div>June 3 (Bloomberg) -- The risk of El Nino weather developing this year has increased, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said, raising the chance of drought in parts of Asia and Australia and potentially curbing agricultural output.</div>
<div><br></div><div>The odds are now likely to be greater than 50 percent, more than double the normal risk in any year, the bureau said today in a statement. An El Nino may be established by mid-winter in the southern hemisphere, the statement said. That’s about July.</div>
<div><br></div><div>A repeat of severe El Nino weather conditions experienced from the Philippines to Australia in 2002 may curb farm output in Asia, possibly hurting harvests of rice, palm oil, coffee and cocoa. It may also harm Australia’s wheat crop, helping support a rally that sent wheat futures to an eight-month high this week.</div>
<div><br></div><div>“When the full effects come in, you’re looking at a wheat crop of less than half” the average of 22 million metric tons a year in Australia, said Ben Barber, a broker at Bell Commodities Ltd. Australia will be the world’s fourth-biggest exporter of wheat in 2009, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.</div>
<div><br></div><div>Wheat futures in Chicago gained 22 percent in the two months through yesterday, and on June 1 traded at $6.77 a bushel, the highest since Oct. 2. Wheat for delivery in July traded at $6.6425 a bushel at 4:26 p.m. in Singapore.</div>
<div><br></div><div>Pacific Ocean</div><div><br></div><div>An El Nino occurs when surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise to above-average levels. The phenomenon affects the jet stream, alters storm tracks and creates unusual weather patterns. Moderate to strong El Nino conditions typically bring warmer-than-average weather to the northern U.S. during winter.</div>
<div><br></div><div>“If recent trends in Pacific climate patterns were to be maintained, an El Nino event would be established by mid- winter,” David Jones, head of climate analysis at the bureau’s National Climate Center, said in the e-mailed statement.</div>
<div><br></div><div>The El Nino that ended in April 1998 caused between $32 billion to $96 billion in losses globally, according to a United Nations’ study. It was blamed for droughts and famine in Papua New Guinea, a plunge in Peru’s fish exports, damage to Argentina’s farm production and tornadoes in the U.S.</div>
<div><br></div><div>Asia’s production of rice, a staple for half the world, may decline as an El Nino reduces rainfall, said Rolando Dy, an agricultural economist at the Manila-based University of Asia and the Pacific.</div>
<div><br></div><div>Corn, Coconuts</div><div><br></div><div>“Rice is very dependent on rainfall and irrigation,” Dy said by phone from Manila. “Other commodities will also be impacted by El Nino including coconut, corn, sugarcane and even aquaculture.”</div>
<div><br></div><div>El Ninos occur about every four to seven years and shift weather patterns around the world. The Australian bureau said El Ninos in 2002 and 2006 brought “widespread and severe” cuts to rainfall in Australia, slashing agricultural output in the world’s largest wool exporter and second-biggest barley shipper.</div>
<div><br></div><div>Global wheat production is forecast to drop 3.7 percent to 658 million tons in the 2009-2010 marketing year, from an estimated 683 million tons a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast in May.</div>
<div><br></div><div>El Nino, which means “little-boy” in Spanish, got its name from Peruvian fisherman who noticed that warmer sea temperatures reduced their catch around Christmas. It emerges first in Australia and can take months to develop.</div>
<div><br></div><div>“It’s still possible that the recent trends may stall without El Nino thresholds being reached,” the Australian weather forecaster said. “Such an outcome, however, may still bias the outlook towards drier-than-average conditions.”</div>
<div><br></div><div>Enlace:</div><div><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aNPKuwYsPti4&refer=australia">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aNPKuwYsPti4&refer=australia</a></div>
<div><br></div><div><br></div><br>-- <br>Blgo. Acui. Milthon B. Lujan Monja<br>AQUA CENTER SRL<br>Urb. Santa Cristina C4-16, Nuevo Chimbote<br>Chimbote - Peru<br><a href="http://www.aqcen.com">http://www.aqcen.com</a><br>
<a href="http://www.aquahoy.com">http://www.aquahoy.com</a><br><a href="http://www.becasnews.com">http://www.becasnews.com</a><br>Skype: milthon.lujan<br><a href="mailto:mlujan@aqcen.com">mlujan@aqcen.com</a><br><a href="mailto:milthon.lujan@gmail.com">milthon.lujan@gmail.com</a>, <a href="mailto:milthon_lujan@hotmail.com">milthon_lujan@hotmail.com</a><br>
Telefono: 51 043 318066 Movil: 51 043 943912190<br><br>
</div>