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<P class=MsoNormal><B><FONT face=Tahoma size=2><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">De:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT face=Tahoma size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma"> Sanchez Scaglioni, Raul Eymard <BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Enviado el:</SPAN></B> jueves, 04 de marzo de 2010 03:23 p.m.<BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Para:</SPAN></B> DIR.GRAL DE ASUNTOS SOCIO AMBIENTALES<BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Asunto:</SPAN></B> Comentarios en Nature sobre reacciones al tsunami en Chile</SPAN></FONT></DIV></DIV>
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<P class=formatpublished4><FONT face=Arial color=#363636 size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Tengan en consideración que los terremotos y tsunamis no son raros en el Perú. Además el sistema de alerta en Perú es similar al de Chile, que habría fallado por la dinámica propia de la institución a cargo de este sistema.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
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<P class=formatpublished4><FONT face=Arial color=#363636 size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Si mal no recuerdo, uno de los investigadores mencionados en esta nota científica, Costas Synolakis, elaboró un análisis relacionado a los tsunamis como parte de los estudios para la construcción de las instalaciones de transporte de gas natural en la bahía de Paracas.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
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<P class=formatpublished4><FONT face=Arial color=#363636 size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Saludos,</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
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<P class=formatpublished4><FONT face=Arial color=#363636 size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Raúl</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
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<P class=formatpublished4><FONT face=Verdana color=#363636 size=1><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 8.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Published online 2 March 2010 | <SPAN class=journalname><I>Nature</I></SPAN> <SPAN class=journalnumber><B>464</B></SPAN>, 14-15 (2010) | doi:10.1038/464014a </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<P class=type-of-article1><FONT face=Verdana color=#363636 size=1><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 8.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">News</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<H1><B><FONT face=Verdana color=#363636 size=6><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 24pt; COLOR: #363636; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Model response to Chile quake?</SPAN></FONT></B></H1>
<P class=intro3><B><FONT face=Verdana color=#363636 size=1><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 8.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Experts debate how much emergency-response planners should rely on tsunami forecasts.</SPAN></FONT></B></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN><SPAN><SPAN class=authorfn><FONT face=Verdana color=#363636 size=1><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 8.5pt; COLOR: #363636; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"><A href="http://www.nature.com/news/author/Quirin+Schiermeier/index.html" target=_blank rel=nofollow><FONT color=#ce0808><SPAN style="COLOR: #ce0808">Quirin Schiermeier</SPAN></FONT></A> </SPAN></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN><FONT face=Verdana color=#363636 size=1><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 8.5pt; COLOR: #363636; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Verdana color=#363636 size=2><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: #363636; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"><IMG id=_x0000_i1025 height=164 src="cid:1.3356251873@web113313.mail.gq1.yahoo.com" width=260 border=0><SPAN class=imagedescription2>Waves caused by a magnitude-8.8 earthquake flattened coastal regions in Chile.</SPAN><I><SPAN style="FONT-STYLE: italic">R. Candia/AP/Press Association Images</SPAN></I></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Verdana color=#363636 size=2><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #363636; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Moments after a magnitude-8.8 earthquake rocked Chile this weekend, a tsunami began to sweep across the Pacific Ocean at hundreds of kilometres per hour. And within 2 hours, scientists had determined that coastal communities beyond Chile probably had little to fear.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Verdana color=#363636 size=2><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #363636; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Yet around the Pacific, from Hawaii to Japan , authorities ordered extensive evacuations. To some tsunami experts the response was no more than prudent. Others think that it was a costly overreaction. "The warning system worked well in terms of trustworthiness of forecast, but its implementation had large loopholes," says Costas Synolakis, a tsunami expert at the University of Southern California , Los Angeles .</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Verdana color=#363636 size=2><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #363636; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Events in Chile , where the earthquake has claimed more than 700 lives, showed the value of a timely tsunami warning. Despite the enormity of the quake — the fifth-strongest since 1900 — the Chilean Navy, responsible for tsunami warnings, failed to issue an immediate alert. Within 34 minutes, destructive waves had hit the coastal city of Valparaíso , sweeping away buildings and people. The number of casualties there is unknown — but the Chilean minister of defence, Francisco Vidal, says that without warnings issued by local authorities and harbour officials acting on their own, many more lives would have been lost.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Verdana color=#363636 size=2><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #363636; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Tsunami forecasters were already trying to work out what would happen next. Burak Uslu, a tsunami modeller with the Pacific Marine and Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) in Seattle , Washington , used a mathematical model called Method of Splitting Tsunami, developed with Synolakis and Vasily Titov of the PMEL, to forecast when waves would arrive, how high they would be and how much dry land would be flooded. It was the first time that the model had been applied to a big tsunami in the Pacific.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Verdana color=#363636 size=2><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #363636; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"><A href="http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100303/full/464014a/box/1.html" target=_blank rel=nofollow></A></SPAN></FONT><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><U><FONT color=#ce0808><SPAN style="COLOR: #ce0808"></SPAN></FONT></U></SPAN></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Verdana color=#ce0808 size=2><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: #ce0808; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"><A href="http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100303/full/464014a/box/1.html" target=_blank rel=nofollow><FONT color=#ce0808><SPAN style="COLOR: #ce0808; TEXT-DECORATION: none"><IMG id=_x0000_i1026 height=70 src="cid:2.3356251873@web113313.mail.gq1.yahoo.com" width=250 border=0></SPAN><SPAN class=imagedescription2>Click for larger image</SPAN></FONT></A><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><U><FONT color=#ce0808><SPAN style="COLOR: #ce0808"></SPAN></FONT></U></SPAN></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Verdana color=#363636 size=2><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #363636; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">About 2 hours after the quake, the tsunami passed the first of the Pacific's network of monitoring buoys, which recorded a wave one-quarter of the height of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. When Uslu used the buoy data to refine the model's predictions (see <A href="http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100303/full/464014a/box/1.html" target=_blank rel=nofollow><FONT color=#ce0808><SPAN style="COLOR: #ce0808">'Catching a wave'</SPAN></FONT></A>), he found that most of the tsunami energy would pass between Tahiti and Hawaii and continue on to Japan , and that Hawaiian beaches could be flooded up to a height of 1.2 metres . Around the same time, however, the US Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) in Ewa Beach , Hawaii , issued an ocean-wide tsunami warning.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=#363636 size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt;
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<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Verdana color=#363636 size=2><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #363636; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Synolakis contends that the PTWC was divided on how to respond to the forecasts — after all, a tsunami triggered by the largest-ever recorded earthquake, which struck Chile in 1960, had killed 61 people in Hilo , Hawaii . But this is denied by Charles McCreery, director of the PTWC: "I heard no dissent in our office."</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Verdana color=#363636 size=2><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #363636; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The PTWC decided that tsunami alerts should be kept in place despite the forecasts of relatively little impact outside Chile . Many thousands of people were evacuated from beaches and low-lying land in Hawaii and parts of Japan , and Californian beach-goers and communities were held on standby. "We were not going to gamble with people's lives," says McCreery. He maintains that Hawaii had a good chance of sustaining damage and points out that the Marquesas Islands in the south Pacific were hit by waves that were 4 metres from crest to trough. </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Verdana color=#363636 size=2><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #363636; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">In time, the model's predictions would be vindicated by events around the Pacific. When the waves arrived in Hawaii , they were little higher than the normal surf, whereas coastal communities in northern Japan , 17,000 kilometres from the earthquake zone, faced modest flooding — the worst impact outside Chile . </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Verdana color=#363636 size=2><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #363636; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Scientists think that this week's tsunami was milder than the Indian Ocean event because the fault that slipped lay beneath a relatively shallow part of the ocean, and therefore displaced a smaller volume of water. The geometry of the fault and the way it ruptured probably also helped to limit the severity of the tsunami. "Had the ground ruptured a bit further north, Hawaii would had been severely hit," says Synolakis. </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Verdana color=#363636 size=2><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #363636; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">McCreery admits that the PTWC took a conservative approach to what the model was telling them. "We'll be looking at this very hard over the next few months, and longer, to see what improvements can be made," he says. As confidence grows in the model, experts may be more prepared to cancel tsunami warnings earlier, he adds. Although serial false alarms can make people complacent about the threat of a tsunami, McCreery says that occasional evacuations can actually increase people's confidence that the system is working. </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Verdana color=#363636 size=2><SPAN lang=EN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #363636; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Jörn Lauterjung, a tsunami expert at the German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam who oversees the German–Indonesian tsunami early-warning system, agrees that the PTWC made the right decision. If an earthquake of similar magnitude strikes the Indian Ocean region, he says, authorities should take the same action. But Synolakis argues that the increasing reliability of tsunami forecasts allows emergency planners to order evacuation only when necessary. "The authorities in charge need to listen to science," says Synolakis. "Every ounce of extra prevention is counterproductive as it reduces the overall credibility of the system."<SPAN class=end-of-item1> </SPAN></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
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<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Raúl E.Sánchez Scaglioni</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Especialista ambiental</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial color=black size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Equipo de Gestión Socio Ambiental de Proyectos en Concesión</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Dirección General de Asuntos Socio Ambientales</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Ministerio de Transportes y Comunicaciones</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
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