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<DIV class=article-heading><FONT size=4>El Niño exerts a deadly
effect</FONT></DIV></HGROUP>
<DIV>Lighter rains mean more fires — and more pollution.</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=vcard><A class=fn
href="http://www.nature.com/news/el-ni%C3%B1o-exerts-a-deadly-effect-1.11158?WT.ec_id=NEWS-20120814#auth-1">Jeff
Tollefson</A></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV class=pubdate-and-corrections>Nature, 12 August
2012</TIME></DIV></HEADER><SECTION>
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class=img-content>An unexpected link between the climate event El Niño and a
rise in the number of deaths in southeast Asia is revealed in research published
today in <I>Nature Climate Change</I><SUP><A id=ref-link-1 class=ref-link
title="Marlier, M. E. et al. Nature Clim. Change http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1658 (2012)."
href="http://www.nature.com/news/el-ni%C3%B1o-exerts-a-deadly-effect-1.11158?WT.ec_id=NEWS-20120814#b1">1</A></SUP>.</DIV></DIV>
<P>El Niño events, which displace warm water into the eastern Pacific Ocean and
produce cool waters near Indonesia, exert their effect by suppressing the
monsoon rains that usually put a dampener on the use of fire to clear land for
agriculture. The resulting additional pollution can account for as many as
15,000 deaths in El Niño years, the study says.</P>
<P>“We usually think of deforestation and fires in terms of global carbon
emissions, but we are seeing this regional impact on public health as well,”
says Miriam Marlier, a graduate student at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty
Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York, who led the study.</P>
<DIV class="related-stories-box box">The work focused on an area that is home to
540 million people, stretching from Indonesia to the Philippines, Vietnam and
Thailand. Marlier and her team used emissions estimates derived from satellite
observations for 1997–2006, which they plugged into a pair of atmospheric
chemistry models to analyse air pollution in the region.</DIV>
<P>During the strong El Niño of 1997, the analysis revealed that there was a
spike in the amount of fine particles in the atmosphere, exceeding air-quality
standards recommended by the World Health Organization by 300% for some 200 days
of the year. There was also an increase in the level of ozone, a component of
smog, for the same period. By contrast, when a La Niña event occurred in 2000,
which saw warmer water enhance the monsoon rains, the level of carbon
particulates was 98% lower than in 1997. The pollution is worst over Indonesia
and Malaysia but also extends farther into the mainland.</P>
<P>The researchers calculate that the increased air pollution in El Niño years
would exact a heavy toll on the population. Carbon particulates, which
contribute to heart disease, would have the greatest effect, causing
6,800–14,300 more deaths. Ozone would be responsible for an additional
2,300–5,900 deaths.</P>
<P>The study brings together disparate data to offer a fresh perspective on the
effects of deforestation on human health, says Guido van der Werf, who studies
global fire emissions at VU University Amsterdam and was not involved in the
research. “Hopefully these results will somehow trickle down to the ones that
are most exposed to poor air quality,” he says. The good news, van der Werf
adds, “is that these fires are all caused by humans, so in principle they can be
prevented”.</P>
<P>Drew Shindell, a co-author on the study and modeller at NASA’s Goddard
Institute for Space Studies in New York, says he was surprised at the big role
fires played in determining air quality. Although much of the burning takes
place in Sumatra and Borneo, the effects are noticeable even in large cities
such as Singapore and Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. “I wasn’t surprised that there
would be a big impact in rural areas,” Shindell says, “but it turned out that
the influence of these fires was so large that even in urban areas it was really
important.</P></DIV>
<DL class=citation>
<DT><A href="javascript:;"
jQuery16404010623796588916="8">References</A></DT></DL></DIV>
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<OL class=references>
<LI id=b1>
<P><SPAN class="vcard author"><SPAN class=fn>Marlier, M. E.</SPAN></SPAN>
<I>et al</I>. <SPAN class=source-title>Nature Clim. Change</SPAN> <A
href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1658">http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1658</A>
(<SPAN class=year>2012</SPAN>).</P></LI>
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