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<DIV>Nature Volume :502<SPAN>, </SPAN>Pages: 541–545</DIV>
<DIV class=published>24 October 2013</DIV>
<DIV class=published><A
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20131024">http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20131024</A></DIV>
<DIV class=published> </DIV>
<DIV class=article-heading><FONT size=5><STRONG>Robust twenty-first-century
projections of El<SPAN class=mb> </SPAN>Niño and related precipitation
variability</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV class="vcard c1"><A class=name
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20131024#auth-1"
jQuery1720796640271011988="85"><SPAN class=fn>Scott Power</SPAN></A><SPAN
class=comma>,</SPAN><SUP><A
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#a1">1</A></SUP>
<A class=name
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20131024#auth-2"
jQuery1720796640271011988="86"><SPAN class=fn>François Delage</SPAN></A><SPAN
class=comma>,</SPAN><SUP><A
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#a1">1</A></SUP>
<A class=name
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20131024#auth-3"
jQuery1720796640271011988="87"><SPAN class=fn>Christine Chung</SPAN></A><SPAN
class=comma>,</SPAN><SUP><A
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#a1">1</A></SUP>
<A class=name
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20131024#auth-4"
jQuery1720796640271011988="88"><SPAN class=fn>Greg Kociuba</SPAN></A><SUP><A
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#a1">1</A></SUP>
<SPAN>& </SPAN><A class=name
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20131024#auth-5"
jQuery1720796640271011988="89"><SPAN class=fn>Kevin Keay</SPAN></A><SUP><A
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#a1">1</A></SUP> </DIV>
<DIV>Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology,
Docklands, Melbourne, Victoria, 3008, Australia</DIV>
<DL class=citation>
<DT>The El<SPAN class=mb><SPAN class=mb> </SPAN></SPAN>Niño–Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) drives substantial variability in rainfall<SUP><A
id=ref-link-3
title="Ropelewski, C. F. & Halpert, M. S. Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation. J. Clim. 2, 268-284 (2007)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref1">1</A>,
<A id=ref-link-4
title="Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO. Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research (eds Hennessy, K. Power, S. & Cambers, G.). (2011)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref2">2</A>,
<A id=ref-link-5
title="Power, S., Casey, T., Folland, C., Colman, A. & Mehta, V. Interdecadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Clim. Dyn. 15, 234-319 (1999)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref3">3</A></SUP>,
severe weather<SUP><A id=ref-link-6
title="Donelly, J. P. & Woodruff, J. D. Intense hurricane activity over the past 5,000 years controlled by El[thinsp]Nino and the west African monsoon. Nature 447, 465-468 (2007)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref4">4</A>,
<A id=ref-link-7
title="Callaghan, J. & Power, S. B. Variability and decline in the number of severe tropical cyclones making land-fall over eastern Australia since the late nineteenth century. Clim. Dyn. 37, 647-662 (2011)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref5">5</A></SUP>,
agricultural production<SUP><A id=ref-link-8
title="Power, S., Casey, T., Folland, C., Colman, A. & Mehta, V. Interdecadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Clim. Dyn. 15, 234-319 (1999)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref3">3</A>,
<A id=ref-link-9
title="Hammer, G. L. et al. Advances in the application of climate prediction in agriculture. Agric. Syst. 70, 515-553 (2001)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref6">6</A></SUP>,
ecosystems<SUP><A id=ref-link-10
title="McPhaden, M. J., Zebiak, S. E. & Glantz, M. H. ENSO as an integrating concept in earth science. Science 314, 1740-1745 (2006)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref7">7</A></SUP>
and disease<SUP><A id=ref-link-11
title="Sari Kovats, R. S. et al. El[thinsp]Nino and health. Nature 361, 1481-1489 (2003)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref8">8</A></SUP>
in many parts of the world. Given that further human-forced changes in the
Earth’s climate system seem inevitable<SUP><A id=ref-link-12
title="Meehl, G. A. et al. in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Solomon, S. et al.) 747- 845 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref9">9</A>,
<A id=ref-link-13
title="Peters, G. P. et al. The challenge to keep global warming below 2[deg]C. Nature Clim. Change 3, 4-6 (2013)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref10">10</A></SUP>,
the possibility exists that the character of ENSO and its impacts might change
over the coming century. Although this issue has been investigated many times
during the past 20<SPAN class=mb><SPAN class=mb> </SPAN></SPAN>years, there is
very little consensus on future changes in ENSO, apart from an expectation
that ENSO will continue to be a dominant source of year-to-year
variability<SUP><A id=ref-link-14
title="Meehl, G. A. et al. in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Solomon, S. et al.) 747- 845 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref9">9</A>,
<A id=ref-link-15
title="Collins, M. et al. The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El[thinsp]Nino. Nature Geosci. 3, 391-397 (2010)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref11">11</A>,
<A id=ref-link-16
title="Vecchi, G. A. & Wittenberg, A. T. El[thinsp]Nino and our future climate: where do we stand? Wiley Interdisc. Rev. Clim. Change 1, 260-270 (2010)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref12">12</A></SUP>.
</DT>
<DT> </DT>
<DT>Here we show that there are in fact robust projected changes in the
spatial patterns of year-to-year ENSO-driven variability in both surface
temperature and precipitation. These changes are evident in the two most
recent generations of climate models<SUP><A id=ref-link-17
title="Meehl, G. et al. The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 88, 1383-1394 (2007)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref13">13</A>,
<A id=ref-link-18
title="Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An overview of the CMIP5 and the experimental design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485-498 (2012)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref14">14</A></SUP>,
using four different scenarios for CO<SUB>2</SUB> and other radiatively active
gases<SUP><A id=ref-link-19
title="Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An overview of the CMIP5 and the experimental design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485-498 (2012)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref14">14</A>,
<A id=ref-link-20
title="Moss, R. H. et al. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463, 747-756 (2010)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref15">15</A>,
<A id=ref-link-21
title="van Vuuren et al. The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim. Change 109, 5-31 (2011)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref16">16</A>,
<A id=ref-link-22
title="Nakicenovic, N. et al. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2000)"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/full/nature12580.html#ref17">17</A></SUP>.
By the mid- to late twenty-first century, the projections include an
intensification of both El-Niño-driven drying in the western Pacific Ocean and
rainfall increases in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. </DT>
<DT> </DT>
<DT>Experiments with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model reveal that
robust projected changes in precipitation anomalies during El<SPAN
class=mb><SPAN class=mb> </SPAN></SPAN>Niño years are primarily determined by
a nonlinear response to surface global warming. Uncertain projected changes in
the amplitude of ENSO-driven surface temperature variability have only a
secondary role. Projected changes in key characteristics of ENSO are
consequently much clearer than previously
realized.</DT></DL></FONT></BODY></HTML>