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<body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple>
<div class=Section1>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Nature
<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN>Volume: 507, Pages: 437–439<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN>Published online 26 March 2014<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN>doi:10.1038/507437a<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<h1 style='background:white'><span lang=EN style='font-size:21.5pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:-.4pt;font-weight:normal'>Climate
science: A high bar for decadal forecasts of El Niño<o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:19.8pt;mso-list:l11 level1 lfo23;
background:white'><![if !supportLists]><span lang=EN style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Symbol;color:#333333'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span
style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v507/n7493/full/507437a.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20140327#auth-1"><span
class=fn><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none'>Pedro DiNezio</span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:19.8pt;mso-list:l11 level1 lfo23;
background:white'><![if !supportLists]><span lang=EN style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Symbol;color:#333333'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span
style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#444444'>Pedro DiNezio is in the Department of Oceanography, School of
Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii
96822, USA.</span><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'> Correspondence to: <a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/foxtrot/svc/authoremailform?doi=10.1038/507437a&file=/nature/journal/v507/n7493/full/507437a.html&title=Climate+science%3A+A+high+bar+for+decadal+forecasts+of+El+Nino&author=Pedro+DiNezio">Pedro
DiNezio</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='line-height:19.8pt;background:white'><b><span lang=EN
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Climate
simulations suggest that multi-decadal periods of high and low variability in
the phenomenon known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the tropical
Pacific Ocean may be entirely unpredictable.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<h1 style='mso-margin-top-alt:13.5pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:0in;
margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:19.8pt;background:white'><span
lang=EN style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";letter-spacing:
-.4pt'><a href="javascript:;"><span style='font-weight:normal'>References</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Wittenberg, A. T.</span></span><span lang=EN>, </span><span
class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Rosati,
A.</span></span><span lang=EN>, </span><span class=fn><span lang=EN
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Delworth, T. L.</span></span><span
lang=EN>, </span><span class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Vecchi, G. A.</span></span><span lang=EN> & </span><span
class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Zeng,
F.</span></span><span lang=EN> </span><span class=source-title1><span lang=EN
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>J. Clim.</span></span><span
lang=EN> <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00577.1"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00577.1</span></a>
(</span><span class=year><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>2014</span></span><span lang=EN>). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>McGregor, S.</span></span><span lang=EN>, </span><span class=fn><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Timmermann, A.</span></span><span
lang=EN>, </span><span class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>England, M. H.</span></span><span lang=EN>, </span><span
class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Timm,
O. E.</span></span><span lang=EN> & </span><span class=fn><span lang=EN
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Wittenberg, A. T.</span></span><span
lang=EN> </span><span class=source-title1><span lang=EN style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Clim. Past</span></span><span lang=EN> </span><span
class=volume1><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>9</span></span><span
lang=EN>, </span><span class=start-page><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>2269</span></span><span lang=EN>–</span><span
class=end-page><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>2284</span></span><span lang=EN> (</span><span class=year><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2013</span></span><span
lang=EN>). <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2269-2013"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Article</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Li, J.</span></span><span lang=EN> <i>et al</i>. </span><span
class=source-title1><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Nature Clim. Change</span></span><span lang=EN> </span><span
class=volume1><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>1</span></span><span
lang=EN>, </span><span class=start-page><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>114</span></span><span lang=EN>–</span><span
class=end-page><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>118</span></span><span lang=EN> (</span><span class=year><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2011</span></span><span
lang=EN>). <a href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011NatCC...1..114L"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>ADS</span></a> <a
href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1086"><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Article</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Emile-Geay, J.</span></span><span lang=EN>, </span><span
class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Cobb,
K. M.</span></span><span lang=EN>, </span><span class=fn><span lang=EN
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Mann, M. E.</span></span><span
lang=EN> & </span><span class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Wittenberg, A. T.</span></span><span lang=EN> </span><span
class=source-title1><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>J. Clim.</span></span><span lang=EN> </span><span class=volume1><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>26</span></span><span
lang=EN>, </span><span class=start-page><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>2329</span></span><span lang=EN>–</span><span
class=end-page><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>2352</span></span><span lang=EN> (</span><span class=year><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2013</span></span><span
lang=EN>). <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00511.1"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Article</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=fn><span lang=ES style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Cobb, K. M.</span></span><span lang=ES> <i>et al</i>. </span><span
class=source-title1><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Science</span></span><span lang=EN> </span><span class=volume1><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>339</span></span><span
lang=EN>, </span><span class=start-page><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>67</span></span><span lang=EN>–</span><span
class=end-page><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>70</span></span><span lang=EN> (</span><span class=year><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2013</span></span><span
lang=EN>). <a
href="http://chemport.cas.org/cgi-bin/sdcgi?APP=ftslink&action=reflink&origin=npg&version=1.0&coi=1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3sXnt1Oh&pissn=0028-0836&pyear=2014&md5=ed4a036c96917e878926646f2eb449ec"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>CAS</span></a> <a
href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013Sci...339...67C"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>ADS</span></a> <a
href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?holding=npg&cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=23288537&dopt=Abstract"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>PubMed</span></a> <a
href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1228246"><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Article</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Wittenberg, A. T.</span></span><span lang=EN> </span><span
class=source-title1><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Geophys. Res. Lett.</span></span><span lang=EN> </span><span
class=volume1><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>36</span></span><span
lang=EN>, </span><span class=start-page><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>L12702</span></span><span lang=EN> (</span><span class=year><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2009</span></span><span
lang=EN>). <a href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009GeoRL..3612702W"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>ADS</span></a> <a
href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038710"><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Article</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Chen, D.</span></span><span lang=EN>, </span><span class=fn><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Cane, M. A.</span></span><span
lang=EN>, </span><span class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Kaplan, A.</span></span><span lang=EN>, </span><span class=fn><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Zebiak, S. E.</span></span><span
lang=EN> & </span><span class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Huang, D.</span></span><span lang=EN> </span><span
class=source-title1><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Nature</span></span><span lang=EN> </span><span class=volume1><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>428</span></span><span
lang=EN>, </span><span class=start-page><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>733</span></span><span lang=EN>–</span><span
class=end-page><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>736</span></span><span lang=EN> (</span><span class=year><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2004</span></span><span
lang=EN>). <a
href="http://chemport.cas.org/cgi-bin/sdcgi?APP=ftslink&action=reflink&origin=npg&version=1.0&coi=1:CAS:528:DC%2BD2cXjtV2mt74%3D&pissn=0028-0836&pyear=2014&md5=580d25e8ea6303515aaab96907964bb8"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>CAS</span></a> <a
href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004Natur.428..733C"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>ADS</span></a> <a
href="http://links.isiglobalnet2.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?amp;GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=Nature&SrcApp=Nature&DestLinkType=FullRecord&KeyUT=000220823800034&DestApp=WOS_CPL"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>ISI</span></a> <a
href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?holding=npg&cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=15085127&dopt=Abstract"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>PubMed</span></a> <a
href="http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature02439"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Article</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Wang, B.</span></span><span lang=EN> & </span><span
class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>An,
S.</span></span><span lang=EN> </span><span class=source-title1><span lang=EN
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Clim. Dyn.</span></span><span
lang=EN> </span><span class=volume1><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>18</span></span><span lang=EN>, </span><span class=start-page><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>475</span></span><span
lang=EN>–</span><span class=end-page><span lang=EN style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>486</span></span><span lang=EN> (</span><span
class=year><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2002</span></span><span
lang=EN>). <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-001-0189-5"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Article</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=fn><span lang=ES style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>DiNezio, P. N.</span></span><span lang=ES> <i>et al</i>. </span><span
class=source-title1><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>J. Clim.</span></span><span lang=EN> </span><span class=volume1><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>25</span></span><span
lang=EN>, </span><span class=start-page><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>7399</span></span><span lang=EN>–</span><span
class=end-page><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>7420</span></span><span lang=EN> (</span><span class=year><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2012</span></span><span
lang=EN>). <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00494.1"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Article</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Lorenz, E. N.</span></span><span lang=EN> presented at </span><cite><i><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>139th Annu.
Meet. AAAS</span></i></cite><span lang=EN>, Boston, Mass. (</span><span
class=year><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>1972</span></span><span
lang=EN>); <a href="http://eaps4.mit.edu/research/Lorenz/Butterfly_1972.pdf"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>http://eaps4.mit.edu/research/Lorenz/Butterfly_1972.pdf</span></a>.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Neale, R. B.</span></span><span lang=EN>, </span><span class=fn><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Richter, J. H.</span></span><span
lang=EN> & </span><span class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Jochum, M.</span></span><span lang=EN> </span><span
class=source-title1><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>J. Clim.</span></span><span lang=EN> </span><span class=volume1><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>21</span></span><span
lang=EN>, </span><span class=start-page><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>5904</span></span><span lang=EN>–</span><span
class=end-page><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>5924</span></span><span lang=EN> (</span><span class=year><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2008</span></span><span
lang=EN>). <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2244.1"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Article</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Kirtman, B. P.</span></span><span lang=EN> & </span><span
class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Schopf,
P. S.</span></span><span lang=EN> </span><span class=source-title1><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>J. Clim.</span></span><span
lang=EN> </span><span class=volume1><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>11</span></span><span lang=EN>, </span><span class=start-page><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2804</span></span><span
lang=EN>–</span><span class=end-page><span lang=EN style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2822</span></span><span lang=EN> (</span><span
class=year><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>1998</span></span><span
lang=EN>). <a
href="http://links.isiglobalnet2.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?amp;GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=Nature&SrcApp=Nature&DestLinkType=FullRecord&KeyUT=000077171400006&DestApp=WOS_CPL"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>ISI</span></a> <a
href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011%3c2804:DVIEPA%3e2.0.CO;2"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Article</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Ault, T. R.</span></span><span lang=EN>, </span><span class=fn><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Deser, C.</span></span><span
lang=EN>, </span><span class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Newman, M.</span></span><span lang=EN> & </span><span
class=fn><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Emile-Geay,
J.</span></span><span lang=EN> </span><span class=source-title1><span lang=EN
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Geophys. Res. Lett.</span></span><span
lang=EN> </span><span class=volume1><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>40</span></span><span lang=EN>, </span><span class=start-page><span
lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>3450</span></span><span
lang=EN>–</span><span class=end-page><span lang=EN style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>3456</span></span><span lang=EN> (</span><span
class=year><span lang=EN style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2013</span></span><span
lang=EN>). <a href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013GeoRL..40.3450A"><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>ADS</span></a> <a
href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/grl.50647"><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Article</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=fn><span lang=ES style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>Deser, C.</span></span><span lang=ES> <i>et al</i>. </span><span
class=source-title1><span lang=ES style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>J. Clim.</span></span><span lang=ES> </span><span class=volume1><span
lang=ES style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>25</span></span><span
lang=ES>, </span><span class=start-page><span lang=ES style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>2622</span></span><span lang=ES>–</span><span
class=end-page><span lang=ES style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>2651</span></span><span lang=ES> (</span><span class=year><span
lang=ES style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2012</span></span><span
lang=ES>). </span><o:p></o:p></p>
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