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<div class=Section1>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#5D5D5D'>Diversity and Distributions<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='outline: 0px'>Article first published online: 25 AUG
2014<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='outline: 0px;word-wrap: break-word' id=doi>DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12242<o:p></o:p></p>
<h1 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:24.0pt;margin-bottom:0in;
margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;mso-line-height-alt:7.5pt;vertical-align:
baseline'><span class=maintitle><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'><o:p> </o:p></span></span></h1>
<h1 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:24.0pt;margin-bottom:0in;
margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;mso-line-height-alt:7.5pt;vertical-align:
baseline'><span class=maintitle><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'><o:p> </o:p></span></span></h1>
<h1 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:24.0pt;margin-bottom:0in;
margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;mso-line-height-alt:7.5pt;vertical-align:
baseline'><span class=maintitle><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>From current
distinctiveness to future homogenization of the world's freshwater fish faunas</span></span><span
style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:3.75pt;
margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-indent:-.25in;
line-height:18.0pt;mso-list:l4 level1 lfo1;vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><span
style='mso-list:Ignore'>1.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span lang=ES style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Sébastien Villéger</span><sup><span lang=ES
style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black;border:
none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>1,*</span></sup><span lang=ES
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>Simon Blanchet</span><sup><span
lang=ES style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black;
border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>2,3</span></sup><span lang=ES
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>, Olivier
Beauchard</span><sup><span lang=ES style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>4</span></sup><span
lang=ES style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span></span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Thierry Oberdorff</span><sup><span
style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black;border:
none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>5 </span></sup><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>and Sébastien Brosse</span><sup><span
style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black;border:
none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>3</span></sup><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-line-height-alt:7.5pt;vertical-align:baseline;
outline: 0px' id=publishedOnlineDate><span class=affiliationnumber><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black;border:
none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>1 </span></span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Laboratoire Écologie des Systčmes
Marins Côtiers (ECOSYM), UMR 5119 CNRS-UM2-IRD-IFREMER-UM1, Montpellier, France
<span class=affiliationnumber><span style='border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>2 </span></span>Station d'Écologie Expérimentale du CNRS ŕ Moulis,
Moulis, France <span class=affiliationnumber><span style='border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>3 </span></span>CNRS, ENFA, UMR5174 EDB (Laboratoire Évolution et
Diversité Biologique), Université Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, France <span
class=affiliationnumber><span style='border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>4
</span></span>Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Yerseke, The
Netherlands <span class=affiliationnumber><span style='border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>5 </span></span>UMR “BOREA” (IRD 207, CNRS 7208, MNHN,
UPMC), DMPA, Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris Cedex, France <sup><span
style='border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>*</span></sup><span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>Correspondence: Sébastien Villéger,
Laboratoire ECOSYM (UMR 5119), Place Eugčne Bataillon cc 93; 34095 Montpellier,
France.E-mail:<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="mailto:sebastien.villeger@univ-montp2.fr" title="Link to email address"><span
style='color:#007E8A;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>sebastien.villeger@univ-montp2.fr</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:3.75pt;
margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-indent:-.25in;
line-height:18.0pt;mso-list:l4 level1 lfo1;vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><span
style='mso-list:Ignore'>2.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<h3 style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:16.2pt;vertical-align:
baseline'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Abstract<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<h4 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:.05in;
margin-left:0in;line-height:19.2pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Aim<o:p></o:p></span></h4>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:18.0pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Assessing
the consequences of a future increase in non-native species introductions and
native species extirpations on taxonomic similarity among fish faunas.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h4 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:.05in;
margin-left:0in;line-height:19.2pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Location<o:p></o:p></span></h4>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:18.0pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>World-wide.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h4 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:.05in;
margin-left:0in;line-height:19.2pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Methods<o:p></o:p></span></h4>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:18.0pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>We
designed 42 scenarios of future species introductions and extirpations to
simulate future fish composition for 1054 river basins. Using these simulated
future compositions, we computed the change in taxonomic similarity among pairs
of fish faunas from historical to future situation at the river basin,
biogeographic realm and world scales.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h4 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:.05in;
margin-left:0in;line-height:19.2pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Results<o:p></o:p></span></h4>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:18.0pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>According
to all our scenarios, taxonomic similarity among fish faunas will strongly
increase in the future at the three spatial scales considered. Fish faunas from
the Southern Hemisphere, which are currently the less affected by taxonomic
homogenization, are forecasted to show the steepest changes. Our scenarios also
reveal that non-native species introductions will account for most of the
predicted changes, whereas the effect of native species extirpations will be
weak.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h4 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:.05in;
margin-left:0in;line-height:19.2pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Main conclusions<o:p></o:p></span></h4>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:18.0pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>The
predicted future taxonomic homogenization will blur the current high level of
taxonomic dissimilarity among freshwater fish faunas, and therefore, imperil
the conservation programmes based on beta-diversity mapping.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
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