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<div class=Section1>
<p class=MsoNormal>Functional Ecology<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='outline: 0px'><span style='color:#A3A2A2'><a
href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/fec.2015.29.issue-6/issuetoc"><b><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#007E8B;
border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>Volume 29</span></b><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#007E8A;
border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>,</span><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#007E8A;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in;text-decoration:none'> </span></span><b><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#007E8B;
border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>Issue 6</span></b><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#007E8A;
border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>,</span><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#007E8A;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in;text-decoration:none'> </span></span></a></span><b><span
style='color:#007E8B;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>pages
768–778</span></b><span style='color:#A3A2A2'>,</span><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#A3A2A2'> </span></span><b><span style='color:#007E8B;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>June 2015<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Article first published online: 2
JAN 2015<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='outline: 0px;word-wrap: break-word' id=doi><span
style='color:black'>DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.12389<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=articledetails style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
15.6pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px' id=copyright><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#A3A2A2'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<h1 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:24.0pt;margin-bottom:0in;
margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;mso-line-height-alt:7.5pt;vertical-align:
baseline'><span class=maintitle><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>Predicting climate
warming effects on green turtle hatchling viability and dispersal performance</span></span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:3.75pt;
margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-indent:-.25in;
line-height:18.0pt;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo1;vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><span
style='mso-list:Ignore'>1.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black'>Catherine Cavallo</span><sup><span style='font-size:7.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>1,*</span></sup><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black'>,<span class=apple-converted-space> </span>Tim Dempster</span><sup><span
style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black;border:
none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>1</span></sup><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>,Michael R. Kearney</span><sup><span
style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black;border:
none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>1</span></sup><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>Ella Kelly</span><sup><span
style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black;border:
none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>1</span></sup><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>David Booth</span><sup><span
style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black;border:
none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>2</span></sup><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>Kate M. Hadden</span><sup><span
style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black;border:
none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>3</span></sup><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black'> </span></span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black'>and Tim S. Jessop</span><sup><span style='font-size:7.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>1</span></sup><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-line-height-alt:7.5pt;vertical-align:baseline;
outline: 0px' id=publishedOnlineDate><span class=affiliationnumber><span
style='font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black;border:
none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>1 </span></span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Department of Zoology, University
of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia </span><span
class=affiliationnumber><span style='font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>2 </span></span><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>School of
Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-line-height-alt:7.5pt;vertical-align:baseline'><span
class=affiliationnumber><span style='font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>3 </span></span><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Tiwi Land
Council, Winnellie, Northern Territory, Australia. <sup><span style='border:
none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>*</span></sup>Correspondence author. E-mail:<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a href="mailto:ccavallo89@gmail.com"
title="Link to email address"><span style='color:#007E8A;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>ccavallo89@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<form id=searchSite name=advancedSearchForm>
<h3 style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:16.2pt;vertical-align:
baseline'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></h3>
<h3 style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:16.2pt;vertical-align:
baseline'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Summary<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.45in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:
18.0pt;mso-list:l4 level1 lfo7;vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><span
style='mso-list:Ignore'>1.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black'>Ectotherms are taxa considered highly sensitive to rapid climate
warming. This is because body temperature profoundly governs their performance,
fitness and life history. Yet, while several modelling approaches currently
predict thermal effects on some aspects of life history and demography, they do
not consider how temperature simultaneously affects developmental success and
offspring phenotypic performance, two additional key attributes that are needed
to comprehensively understand species responses to climate warming.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.45in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:
18.0pt;mso-list:l4 level1 lfo7;vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><span
style='mso-list:Ignore'>2.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black'>Here, we developed a stepwise, individual-level modelling approach
linking biophysical and developmental models with empirically derived
performance functions to predict the effects of temperature-induced changes to
offspring viability, phenotype and performance, using green sea turtle
hatchlings as an ectotherm model. Climate warming is expected to particularly
threaten sea turtles, as their life-history traits may preclude them from rapid
adaptation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.45in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:
18.0pt;mso-list:l4 level1 lfo7;vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><span
style='mso-list:Ignore'>3.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black'>Under conservative and extreme warming, our model predicted large
effects on performance attributes key to dispersal, as well as a reduction in
offspring viability. Forecast sand temperatures produced smaller, weaker
hatchlings, which were up to 40% slower than at present, albeit with increased
energy stores. Conversely, increases in sea surface temperatures aided swimming
performance.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.45in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:
18.0pt;mso-list:l4 level1 lfo7;vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><span
style='mso-list:Ignore'>4.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black'>Our exploratory study points to the need for further development
of integrative individual-based modelling frameworks to better understand the
complex outcomes of climate change for ectotherm species. Such advances could
better serve ecologists to highlight the most vulnerable species and
populations, encouraging prioritization of conservation effort to the most
threatened systems.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
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