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<div class=Section1>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Nature </span></i><b><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>529</span></b><span style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif"'>, 383–386<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>(21 January
2016)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>doi:10.1038/nature16156<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Published
online 20 January 2016<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;
letter-spacing:-.4pt'><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20160121&spMailingID=50507456&spUserID=MjA1NTE2ODQxMAS2&spJobID=842660933&spReportId=ODQyNjYwOTMzS0">http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html?WT..ec_id=NATURE-20160121&spMailingID=50507456&spUserID=MjA1NTE2ODQxMAS2&spJobID=842660933&spReportId=ODQyNjYwOTMzS0</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;
letter-spacing:-.4pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Future
ocean hypercapnia driven by anthropogenic amplification of the natural CO<sub>2</sub><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='color:#222222;letter-spacing:-.4pt'> </span></span>cycle<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20160121&spMailingID=50507456&spUserID=MjA1NTE2ODQxMAS2&spJobID=842660933&spReportId=ODQyNjYwOTMzS0#auth-1"><span
class=fn><span style='color:#5C7996;text-decoration:none'>Ben I. McNeil</span></span></a>
&<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20160121&spMailingID=50507456&spUserID=MjA1NTE2ODQxMAS2&spJobID=842660933&spReportId=ODQyNjYwOTMzS0#auth-2"><span
class=fn><span style='color:#5C7996;text-decoration:none'>Tristan P. Sasse</span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:15.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:17.95pt;background:white'><span style='font-size:
11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:15.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:17.95pt;background:white'><span style='font-size:
11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>High carbon dioxide (CO</span><sub><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2</span></sub><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>)
concentrations in sea-water (ocean hypercapnia) can induce neurological,
physiological and behavioural deficiencies in marine animals</span><sup><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html#ref1"
title="Cripps, I. L., Munday, P. L. & McCormick, M. I. Ocean acidification affects prey detection by a predatory reef fish. PLoS ONE 6, e22736 (2011)"
id=ref-link-7><span style='color:#5C7996'>1</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html#ref2"
title="Devine, B. M. & Munday, P. L. Habitat preferences of coral-associated fishes are altered by short-term exposure to elevated CO2. Mar. Biol. 160, 1955–1962 (2013)"
id=ref-link-8><span style='color:#5C7996'>2</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html#ref3"
title="Devine, B. M., Munday, P. L. & Jones, G. P. Homing ability of adult cardinalfish is affected by elevated carbon dioxide. Oecologia 168, 269–276 (2012)"
id=ref-link-9><span style='color:#5C7996'>3</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html#ref4"
title="Dixson, D. L., Munday, P. L. & Jones, G. P. Ocean acidification disrupts the innate ability of fish to detect predator olfactory cues. Ecol. Lett. 13, 68–75 (2010)"
id=ref-link-10><span style='color:#5C7996'>4</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html#ref5"
title="Ferrari, M. C. O. et al. Putting prey and predator into the CO2 equation – qualitative and quantitative effects of ocean acidification on predator–prey interactions. Ecol. Lett. 14, 1143–1148 (2011)"
id=ref-link-11><span style='color:#5C7996'>5</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html#ref6"
title="Jutfelt, F., De Souza, K. B., Vuylsteke, A. & Sturve, J. Behavioural disturbances in a temperate fish exposed to sustained high-CO2 levels. PLoS ONE 8, e65825 (2013)"
id=ref-link-12><span style='color:#5C7996'>6</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html#ref7"
title="Munday, P. L. et al. Ocean acidification impairs olfactory discrimination and homing ability of a marine fish. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 1848–1852 (2009)"
id=ref-link-13><span style='color:#5C7996'>7</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html#ref8"
title="Nilsson, G. E. et al. Near-future carbon dioxide levels alter fish behaviour by interfering with neurotransmitter function. Nature Clim. Change 2, 201–204 (2012)"
id=ref-link-14><span style='color:#5C7996'>8</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html#ref9"
title="Spady, B. L., Watson, S. A., Chase, T. J. & Munday, P. L. Projected near-future CO2 levels increase activity and alter defensive behaviours in the tropical squid Idiosepius pygmaeus. Biol. Open 3, 1063–1070 (2014)"
id=ref-link-15><span style='color:#5C7996'>9</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html#ref10"
title="Watson, S. A. et al. Marine mollusc predator-escape behaviour altered by near-future carbon dioxide levels. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 281, 20132377 (2014)"
id=ref-link-16><span style='color:#5C7996'>10</span></a></span></sup><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>.
Prediction of the onset and evolution of hypercapnia in the ocean requires a
good understanding of annual variations in oceanic CO</span><sub><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2</span></sub><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'> </span></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>concentration, but there is a lack of
relevant global observational data. Here we identify global ocean patterns of
monthly variability in carbon concentration using observations that allow us to
examine the evolution of surface-ocean CO</span><sub><span style='font-size:
9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2</span></sub><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'> </span></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>levels over the entire annual cycle under
increasing atmospheric CO</span><sub><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2</span></sub><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'> </span></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>concentrations. We predict that the
present-day amplitude of the natural oscillations in oceanic CO</span><sub><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2</span></sub><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'> </span></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>concentration will be amplified by up to
tenfold in some regions by 2100, if atmospheric CO</span><sub><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2</span></sub><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'> </span></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>concentrations continue to rise throughout
this century (according to the RCP8.5 scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change)</span><sup><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html#ref11"
title="Meinshausen, M. et al. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Clim. Change 109, 213–241 (2011)"
id=ref-link-17><span style='color:#5C7996'>11</span></a></span></sup><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>. The
findings from our data are broadly consistent with projections from Earth
system climate models</span><sup><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html#ref12"
title="Aumont, O. & Bopp, L. Globalizing results from ocean in situ iron fertilization studies. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 20, GB2017 (2006)"
id=ref-link-18><span style='color:#5C7996'>12</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html#ref13"
title="Dunne, J. P. et al. GFDL’s ESM2 global coupled climate–carbon earth system models. Part II: carbon system formulation and baseline simulation characteristics. J. Clim. 26, 2247–2267 (2013)"
id=ref-link-19><span style='color:#5C7996'>13</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html#ref14"
title="Jones, C. D. et al. The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations. Geosci. Model Dev. 4, 543–570 (2011)"
id=ref-link-20><span style='color:#5C7996'>14</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html#ref15"
title="Yang, D. & Saenko, O. A. Ocean heat transport and its projected change in CanESM2. J. Clim. 25, 8148–8163 (2012)"
id=ref-link-21><span style='color:#5C7996'>15</span></a></span></sup><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>. Our
predicted amplification of the annual CO</span><sub><span style='font-size:
9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2</span></sub><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'> </span></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>cycle displays distinct global patterns
that may expose major fisheries in the Southern, Pacific and North Atlantic
oceans to hypercapnia many decades earlier than is expected from average
atmospheric CO</span><sub><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>2</span></sub><span class=apple-converted-space><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'> </span></span><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>concentrations.
We suggest that these ocean ‘CO</span><sub><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2</span></sub><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'> </span></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>hotspots’ evolve as a combination of
the strong seasonal dynamics of CO</span><sub><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2</span></sub><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'> </span></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>concentration and the long-term effective
storage of anthropogenic CO</span><sub><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2</span></sub><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'> </span></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>in the oceans that lowers the buffer
capacity in these regions, causing a nonlinear amplification of CO</span><sub><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2</span></sub><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>concentration
over the annual cycle. The onset of ocean hypercapnia (when the partial
pressure of CO</span><sub><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#333333'>2</span></sub><span class=apple-converted-space><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'> </span></span><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>in
sea-water exceeds 1,000 micro-atmospheres) is forecast for atmospheric CO</span><sub><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>2</span></sub><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>concentrations
that exceed 650 parts per million, with hypercapnia expected in up to half the
surface ocean by 2100, assuming a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5)</span><sup><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7586/full/nature16156.html#ref11"
title="Meinshausen, M. et al. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Clim. Change 109, 213–241 (2011)"
id=ref-link-22><span style='color:#5C7996'>11</span></a></span></sup><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#333333'>. Such
extensive ocean hypercapnia has detrimental implications for fisheries during
the twenty-first century.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
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