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<div class=Section1>
<p class=MsoNormal>Global Ecology and Biogeography<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='outline: 0px'><b><span style='color:#007E8B'><a
href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1466-8238/earlyview"><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#007E8A;
border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>Early View (Online Version of Record
published before inclusion in an issue)</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Article first published online: 2
MAY 2016<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='outline: 0px;word-wrap: break-word' id=doi><span
style='color:black'>DOI: 10.1111/geb.12456<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h1 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:24.0pt;margin-bottom:0in;
margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;mso-line-height-alt:7.5pt;vertical-align:
baseline'><span class=maintitle><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'><o:p> </o:p></span></span></h1>
<h1 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:24.0pt;margin-bottom:0in;
margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;mso-line-height-alt:7.5pt;vertical-align:
baseline'><span class=maintitle><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'><o:p> </o:p></span></span></h1>
<h1 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:24.0pt;margin-bottom:0in;
margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;mso-line-height-alt:7.5pt;vertical-align:
baseline'><span class=maintitle><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>Climate-driven changes to
ocean circulation and their inferred impacts on marine dispersal patterns</span></span><span
style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Laura
J. Wilson<sup><span style='border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>1,*</span></sup>,<span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='color:black'> </span></span>Christopher
J. Fulton<sup><span style='border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>2</span></sup>,
Andrew McC Hogg<sup><span style='border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>3</span></sup>,<span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='color:black'> </span></span>Karen
E. Joyce<sup><span style='border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>4</span></sup>,<span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='color:black'> </span></span>Ben
T. M. Radford<sup><span style='border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>5,6</span></sup><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='color:black'> </span></span>and Ceridwen
I. Fraser<sup><span style='border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>1</span></sup><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='outline: 0px' id=publishedOnlineDate><span
class=affiliationnumber><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>1 </span></span><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Fenner School of
Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT,
Australia <span class=affiliationnumber><span style='color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>2 </span></span>Research School of Biology, Australian National
University, Canberra, ACT, Australia <span class=affiliationnumber><span
style='color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>3 </span></span>Research
School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System
Science, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia <span
class=affiliationnumber><span style='color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>4 </span></span>College of Science, Technology and Engineering,
James Cook University, Cairns, Qld, Australia <span class=affiliationnumber><span
style='color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>5 </span></span>Australian
Institute of Marine Science, Crawley, WA, Australia <span
class=affiliationnumber><span style='color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>6 </span></span>School of Earth and Environment, University of
Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia. <sup><span style='border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>*</span></sup>Correspondence: Laura J. Wilson,.E-mail:<span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='color:black'> </span></span><a
href="mailto:laura.wilson571@gmail.com" title="Link to email address"><span
style='color:#007E8A;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>laura.wilson571@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:15.6pt;vertical-align:
baseline'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<form id=searchSite name=advancedSearchForm>
<h3 style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:16.2pt;vertical-align:
baseline'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Abstract<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<h4 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:.05in;
margin-left:0in;line-height:19.2pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Aim<o:p></o:p></span></h4>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:18.0pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>The dispersal
and distribution patterns of many marine organisms are driven by oceanographic
conditions, which are influenced by global climate. Climate-driven
oceanographic changes are thus likely to result in biogeographical changes. We
assess how recent and predicted oceanographic changes affect the dispersal
capacities and distributions of ecologically important (especially
habitat-forming) marine organisms.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h4 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:.05in;
margin-left:0in;line-height:19.2pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Location<o:p></o:p></span></h4>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:18.0pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>We include
studies from tropical, temperate and sub-polar regions to draw globally
relevant conclusions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h4 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:.05in;
margin-left:0in;line-height:19.2pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Methods<o:p></o:p></span></h4>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:18.0pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>We review
biogeographical, biological and oceanographic studies to critically evaluate
emerging trends in biogeographical responses to climate-driven oceanographic
changes, and predict how future changes will affect marine ecosystems.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h4 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:.05in;
margin-left:0in;line-height:19.2pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Results<o:p></o:p></span></h4>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:18.0pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Many
oceanic dispersal pathways are being altered by climate change. These changes
will affect marine ecosystems by differentially affecting the replenishment
potential and connectivity of key habitat-forming species. In particular, the
length of propagule pre-competency periods, propagule behaviour and the
geographical distance between areas of suitable habitat will be critical in
determining how oceanographic changes affect the pattern and success of
dispersal events, including the likelihood of species experiencing poleward
range shifts in response to a warming climate.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h4 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:.05in;
margin-left:0in;line-height:19.2pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Main conclusions<o:p></o:p></span></h4>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:18.0pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Future
climate-driven oceanographic changes are likely to strengthen or weaken
different oceanic dispersal pathways, which will either increase or decrease
the potential for dispersal and connectivity in various marine taxa according
to the interaction between the local oceanographic, geographical and
taxon-specific biological factors. A key focus for future work should be the
development of fine-scale near-shore ocean circulation models that can be used
to assess the dispersal response of key marine taxa under various marine
climate change scenarios.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
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