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<div class=Section1>
<p class=MsoNormal style='vertical-align:baseline'><span
class=article-headermeta-info-label><b><span style='font-size:10.5pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>Journal
of Animal Ecology<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo5;
vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Symbol'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span class=article-headermeta-info-label><b><span
style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>Accepted manuscript online:</span></b></span><span
class=apple-converted-space><b><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'> </span></b></span><span
style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>11 January 2017 <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo5;
vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Symbol'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span class=article-headermeta-info-label><b><span
style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>DOI:</span></b></span><span class=apple-converted-space><b><span
style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'> </span></b></span><span class=article-headermeta-info-data><span
style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>10.1111/1365-2656.12634</span></span><span style='font-size:7.5pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h1 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.05pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:19.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></h1>
<h1 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.05pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:19.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Warmer temperatures reduce the
influence of an important keystone predator<o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<h3 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:3.75pt;margin-bottom:0in;
margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo4;
background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Symbol;font-weight:normal'><span
style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:12.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
font-weight:normal'>Chiara Bonaviri, </span><span style='font-size:12.5pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";font-weight:normal'>Michael Graham,</span><span
style='font-size:12.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";font-weight:normal'> </span><span
style='font-size:12.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";font-weight:normal'>Paola
Gianguzza, Nick T. Shears<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:3.75pt;
margin-bottom:6.0pt;margin-left:0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo4;
background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><span
style='mso-list:Ignore'>0.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<h2 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:.1in;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:16.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Summary<o:p></o:p></span></h2>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:11.25pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;background-position-x:
0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Predator-prey
interactions may be strongly influenced by temperature variations in marine
ecosystems. Consequently, climate change may alter the importance of predators
with repercussions for ecosystem functioning and structure.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;
background-position-x:0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif"'>In North-eastern Pacific kelp forests, the starfish<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><em><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>Pycnopodia helianthoides</span></em><span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>is known to be an important predator
of the purple sea urchin<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><em><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>Strongylocentrotus purpuratus</span></em>. Here we investigated
the influence of water temperature on this predator-prey interaction by: (1)
assessing the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of both species across
a temperature gradient in the northern Channel Islands, California, and (2)
investigating how the feeding rate of<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><em><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>P. helianthoides</span></em><span class=apple-converted-space> </span>on<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><em><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>S. purpuratus</span></em><span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>is affected by temperature in
laboratory tests.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;
background-position-x:0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif"'>On average, at sites where mean annual temperatures were
<14°C,<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><em><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>P. helianthoides</span></em><span class=apple-converted-space> </span>were
common,<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><em><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>S. purpuratus</span></em><span class=apple-converted-space> </span>was
rare and kelp was persistent, whereas where mean annual temperatures exceeded
14°C,<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><em><span style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>P. helianthoides</span></em><span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>and kelp were rare and<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><em><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>S. purpuratus</span></em><span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>abundant. Temperature was found to be
the primary environmental factor influencing<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><em><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>P. helianthoides</span></em>abundance, and in turn<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><em><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>P. helianthoides</span></em><span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>was the primary determinant of<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><em><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>S. purpuratus </span></em>abundance.
In the laboratory, temperatures >16°C (equivalent to summer temperatures at
sites where<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><em><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>P. helianthoides</span></em><span class=apple-converted-space> </span>were
rare) reduced predation rates regardless of predator and prey sizes, although
larger sea urchins were consumed only by large starfishes.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;
background-position-x:0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif"'>These results clearly demonstrate that the effect of<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><em><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>P. helianthoides</span></em><span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>on<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><em><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>S. purpuratus</span></em><span class=apple-converted-space> </span>is
strongly mediated by temperature, and that the local abundance and predation
rate of<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><em><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>P. helianthoides</span></em><span class=apple-converted-space> </span>on
sea urchins will likely decrease with future warming. A reduction in top-down
control on sea urchins, combined with other expected impacts of climate change
on kelp, poses significant risks for the persistence of kelp forests in the
future.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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