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<p class=MsoNormal style='vertical-align:baseline'><span
class=article-headermeta-info-label><b><span style='font-size:10.5pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>Diversity
and Distributions<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo5;
vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Symbol'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span class=article-headermeta-info-label><b><span
style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>First published</span></b></span><span
class=article-headermeta-info-label><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>:</span></b></span><span
class=apple-converted-space><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'> </span></b></span><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>3 February 2017</span><span
style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo5;
vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Symbol'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span class=article-headermeta-info-label><b><span
style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>DOI:</span></b></span><span class=apple-converted-space><b><span
style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'> </span></b></span><span class=article-headermeta-info-data><span
style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>10.1111/ddi.12537</span></span><span style='font-size:7.5pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h1 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.05pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></h1>
<h1 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.05pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:19.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Predicting cetacean distributions
in data-poor marine ecosystems<o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<h3 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:3.75pt;margin-bottom:0in;
margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo4;
background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Symbol;font-weight:normal'><span
style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:12.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
font-weight:normal'>Jessica V. Redfern, </span><span style='font-size:12.5pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";font-weight:normal'>Thomas J. Moore,</span><span
style='font-size:12.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";font-weight:normal'> </span><span
style='font-size:12.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";font-weight:normal'>Paul
C. Fiedler,</span><span style='font-size:12.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
font-weight:normal'> </span><span style='font-size:12.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
font-weight:normal'>Asha de Vos,</span><span style='font-size:12.5pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";font-weight:normal'> </span><span
style='font-size:12.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";font-weight:normal'>Robert
L. Brownell Jr,</span><span style='font-size:12.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
font-weight:normal'> </span><span style='font-size:12.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
font-weight:normal'>Karin A. Forney,</span><span style='font-size:12.5pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";font-weight:normal'> </span><span
style='font-size:12.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";font-weight:normal'>Elizabeth
A. Becker, Lisa T. Ballance<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo5;
vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Symbol'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<h2 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:.1in;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;background-position-x:
0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Abstract<o:p></o:p></span></h2>
<h3 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:9.45pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;background-position-x:
0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-size:14.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;font-weight:normal'>Aim<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;
background-position-x:0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif"'>Human activities are creating conservation challenges for
cetaceans. Spatially explicit risk assessments can be used to address these
challenges, but require species distribution data, which are limited for many
cetacean species. This study explores methods to overcome this limitation. Blue
whales (<em><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>Balaenoptera musculus</span></em>) are used as a case study
because they are an example of a species that have well-defined habitat and are
subject to anthropogenic threats.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<h3 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:9.45pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;background-position-x:
0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-size:14.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;font-weight:normal'>Location<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;
background-position-x:0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif"'>Eastern Pacific Ocean, including the California Current
(CC) and eastern tropical Pacific (ETP), and northern Indian Ocean (NIO).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<h3 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:9.45pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;background-position-x:
0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-size:14.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;font-weight:normal'>Methods<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;
background-position-x:0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif"'>We used 12 years of survey data (377 blue whale
sightings and<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><em><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>c</span></em>. 225,400 km of effort) collected in the CC
and ETP to assess the transferability of blue whale habitat models. We used the
models built with CC and ETP data to create predictions of blue whale
distributions in the data-poor NIO because key aspects of blue whale ecology
are expected to be similar in these ecosystems.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<h3 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:9.45pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;background-position-x:
0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-size:14.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;font-weight:normal'>Results<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;
background-position-x:0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif"'>We found that the ecosystem-specific blue whale models
performed well in their respective ecosystems, but were not transferable. For
example, models built with CC data could accurately predict distributions in
the CC, but could not accurately predict distributions in the ETP. However, the
accuracy of models built with combined CC and ETP data was similar to the
accuracy of the ecosystem-specific models in both ecosystems. Our predictions
of blue whale habitat in the NIO from the models built with combined CC and ETP
data compare favourably to hypotheses about NIO blue whale distributions,
provide new insights into blue whale habitat, and can be used to prioritize
research and monitoring efforts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<h3 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:9.45pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;background-position-x:
0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-size:14.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;font-weight:normal'>Main conclusions<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;
background-position-x:0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif"'>Predicting cetacean distributions in data-poor ecosystems
using habitat models built with data from multiple ecosystems is potentially a
powerful marine conservation tool and should be examined for other species and
regions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
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