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<div class=Section1>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo5;
vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span
class=article-headermeta-info-label><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Symbol'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span></span><![endif]><span
class=article-headermeta-info-label><b><span style='font-size:10.5pt;
border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>Diversity and Distributions </span></b></span><span
class=article-headermeta-info-label><span style='font-size:7.5pt'><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo5;
vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Symbol'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span class=article-headermeta-info-label><b><span
style='font-size:10.5pt;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>First
published:</span></b></span><span class=apple-converted-space><b><span
style='font-size:10.5pt;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'> </span></b></span><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>21 March 2017</span><span
style='font-size:7.5pt'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo5;
vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Symbol;
color:#414141'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span></span><![endif]><span
class=article-headermeta-info-label><b><span style='font-size:10.5pt;
border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>DOI:</span></b></span><span
class=apple-converted-space><b><span style='font-size:10.5pt;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'> </span></b></span><span class=article-headermeta-info-data><span
style='font-size:10.5pt;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>10.1111/ddi.12551</span></span><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:7.5pt'> </span></span><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:19.0pt;color:#414141'><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<h1 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.05pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:19.0pt;
color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></h1>
<h1 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.05pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:19.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Refining and expanding global
climate change scenarios in the sea: Poleward creep complexities, range
termini, and setbacks and surges<o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<h3 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:3.75pt;margin-bottom:0in;
margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo3;
background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Symbol;font-weight:normal'><span
style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:12.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
font-weight:normal'>João Canning-Clode, </span><span style='font-size:12.5pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";font-weight:normal'>James T. Carlton<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:3.75pt;
margin-bottom:6.0pt;margin-left:0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l1 level2 lfo4;
background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><span
style='mso-list:Ignore'>0.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo5;
vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Symbol;color:#414141'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span
style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:19.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#414141'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo5;
vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Symbol'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif"'>Abstract</span></b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo5;
vertical-align:baseline'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Symbol'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<h3 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:9.45pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;background-position-x:
0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-size:14.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;font-weight:normal'>Aim<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;
background-position-x:0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif"'>Invasion dynamics are sensitive to global-scale changes.
New marine invasions have been recorded in dramatically increasing numbers
along the world's coasts, due, in part, to the global warming of the oceans and
the ability of many successful invasive marine species to tolerate a broader
thermal range than native species. As a response to ocean warming, a poleward
movement of numerous species has been observed in many biogeographic regions.
Our aim was to explore several poorly recognized and thus rarely studied
aspects of ocean climate change scenarios in order to advance our understanding
of finer-grained aspects of poleward movements.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<h3 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:9.45pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;background-position-x:
0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-size:14.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;font-weight:normal'>Location<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;
background-position-x:0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif"'>Global.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<h3 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:9.45pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;background-position-x:
0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-size:14.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;font-weight:normal'>Methods<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;
background-position-x:0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif"'>Three scenarios are investigated in our framework: (1)
the existence of networks of complex intraregional origins, routes and
destinations of poleward-moving species, (2) the existence of impenetrable
termini where no further expansion is possible, linked to potential outflow
corridors, and (3) the interplay of a warming ocean with aperiodic cold
episodes.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<h3 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:9.45pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;background-position-x:
0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-size:14.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;font-weight:normal'>Results<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;
background-position-x:0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif"'>Poleward advances consist of distinct regional networks
of origins, routes and destinations, largely undefined in most areas, linked in
turn to the potential existence of endpoints where no further expansion may be
possible without escape routes and/or human-mediated assistance. The
interaction of aperiodic cooling periods may result in temporary setbacks or
rate reductions in range expansions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<h3 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:9.45pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;background-position-x:
0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-size:14.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:black;font-weight:normal'>Main conclusions<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline;outline: 0px;
background-position-x:0px;background-position-y:0px'><span style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif"'>The recognition of potentially complex
origin-route-destination networks may significantly advance our predictive
capacity of both future invasions and range expansions and potential impacts.
Thus, specific focus on high-profile donor region species pools linked to
established vector routes may yield far more robust management scenarios than
currently in place. While it is probable that the frequency of climate-mediated
surges (inevitable warming) and setbacks (cooling periods) of species invasions
will increase over time, the net outcome is likely to be positive, resulting in
an inexorable poleward expansion of thousands of species.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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