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<![endif]--> <!--StartFragment--><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;">Terminada La Niña Débil noviembre 2017-abril 2018 que podría devenir en los siguientes meses?<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;"><br data-mce-bogus="1"></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;" data-mce-style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>La Comisión Multisectorial del ENFEN informa que, en la costa norte de Perú se espera en este mes(agosto) la llegada de una onda Kelvin fría</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;"> y en setiembre el arribo de una onda Kelvin cálida, esta última podría suscitar a un leve incremento de las anomalías de la temperatura y nivel del mar. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;">Para el próximo verano en el Pacífico central se espera la ocurrencia de condiciones El Niño con la probabilidad de 72%; mientras que, en la región oriental (Niño 1+2, </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;">que incluye la costa peruana) la probabilidad de 48%, frente a una probabilidad de 50% de condiciones neutras. Según esta evaluación, se esperan lluvias de </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;">normal a ligeramente superior a ésta, más no extraordinarias, en la costa norte del Perú.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;"><br data-mce-bogus="1"></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;">Según mi análisis, un pronóstico es que la tendencia lineal de los valores ONI(3.4) implicaría que el niño se iniciará los primeros días de septiembre 2018. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;">Según las diferencias de las presiones entre Darwin y Tahití ahora empezaron a ser negativas abonando a un inicio del Niño</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;">( El promedio quincenal de la diferencia al 15 de agosto 2018 fue - 0.8 ± 1.69 hPa)<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;"><br data-mce-bogus="1"></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;">Mi pronostico alterno con <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;" data-mce-style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ARIMA(2,0,2) que pronostica que las condiciones neutras durarían hasta finales del presente año, según los valores centrales del pronóstico. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;">Tomando en cuenta los limites inferior y superior debido al error estándar del estimado, las Condiciones Neutras se mantendrían hasta finalizado el 2018. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;">A principios de julio 2018 las anomalías positivas de la temperatura sub superficial del mar(Ondas Kelvin) se debilitaron en el Pacifico Oriental</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;">(áreas cercanas a las costas sudamericanas) lo que abona a favor del Episodio Condiciones Neutras para el 2018.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;" data-mce-style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;" data-mce-style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br data-mce-bogus="1"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;">Finalmente debemos tener plan A y B para estar preparados para ambos eventos. Seguir monitoreando la diferencia de presiones entre Darwin y Tahití, y </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;">los índices ONI(3.4) que NOAA reportan mensualmente para elaborar un próximo pronóstico.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;">Mensualmente estaremos actualizando los pronóstico.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;"><br data-mce-bogus="1"></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;"><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327164186_Se_viene_El_Nino_Oceanico_2018_o_prosiguen_Condiciones_Neutras" data-mce-href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327164186_Se_viene_El_Nino_Oceanico_2018_o_prosiguen_Condiciones_Neutras">https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327164186_Se_viene_El_Nino_Oceanico_2018_o_prosiguen_Condiciones_Neutras</a><o:p></o:p></p><!--EndFragment--> <br></div><div><br></div><div data-marker="__SIG_POST__">-- <br></div><div><div><span style="font-size: medium;" data-mce-style="font-size: medium;"> </span><p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;" data-mce-style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;" data-mce-style="font-size: medium;"><b><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma;" data-mce-style="color: black; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma;">Manuel Antonio Plácido Cárdenas</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;" data-mce-style="color: black; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></span></p><span style="font-size: medium;" data-mce-style="font-size: medium;"> </span><p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;" data-mce-style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma;" data-mce-style="color: black; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma;">Instituto Tecnológico de la Producción - ITP.</span></p><span style="font-size: 11pt;" data-mce-style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;" data-mce-style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span><p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;" data-mce-style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;" data-mce-style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;" data-mce-style="color: black; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">T. (511) 577-0116, 577-0118, Anexo 1703, </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;" data-mce-style="color: black; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">994646957</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;" data-mce-style="color: black; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"></span></span></p><span style="font-size: 11pt;" data-mce-style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;" data-mce-style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #fdfdfc; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; line-height: normal;" data-mce-style="background: #fdfdfc; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;" data-mce-style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;" data-mce-style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: medium;" data-mce-style="font-size: medium;"><span lang="ES-MX" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: ES-MX;" data-mce-style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: ES-MX;">C. </span><span lang="ES-MX" style="mso-ansi-language: ES-MX;" data-mce-style="mso-ansi-language: ES-MX;"><a href="mailto:mplacido@itp.gob.pe" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0000ff;" data-mce-style="color: #0000ff;">mplacido@itp.gob.pe</span></a><span style="color: black;" data-mce-style="color: black;"> </span></span></span></span></span></p><span style="font-size: 11pt;" data-mce-style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;" data-mce-style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #fdfdfc; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; line-height: normal;" data-mce-style="background: #fdfdfc; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;" data-mce-style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;" data-mce-style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: medium;" data-mce-style="font-size: medium;"><span lang="ES-MX" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: ES-MX;" data-mce-style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: ES-MX;">D. Carretera a Ventanilla KM 5.2 – Callao</span><span lang="ES-MX" style="mso-ansi-language: ES-MX;" data-mce-style="mso-ansi-language: ES-MX;"></span></span></span></span></p><span style="font-size: 11pt;" data-mce-style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;" data-mce-style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span><p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;" data-mce-style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;" data-mce-style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="http://www.itp.gob.pe/" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma;" data-mce-style="mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma;"><span style="color: #0000ff;" data-mce-style="color: #0000ff;">www.itp.gob.pe</span></span></a></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;" data-mce-style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;" data-mce-style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><img src="cid:27f3abf2bc03a0e7a54786bc3da757ea6fcf3dd9@zimbra" data-mce-src="http://correo.itp.gob.pe/home/mplacido@itp.gob.pe/Briefcase/LogoITP4.jpg" doc="Briefcase/LogoITP4.jpg"></span></p><span style="font-size: medium;" data-mce-style="font-size: medium;"> </span></div></div></div></body></html>