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<div class=Section1>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>The
findings mean the world might have less time to curb carbon emissions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Startling
new research finds large buildup of heat in the oceans, suggesting a faster
rate of global warming<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><a name=PFXASCWRYEI6RJG3DBBRDUTRFE></a><span class=by-lbl><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in'>By</span></span><span class=apple-converted-space><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> </span></span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><a
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/chris-mooney/"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>Chris Mooney</span></a><span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><span class=byline-divider-lbl><span
style='border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>and </span></span><a
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/brady-dennis/"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>Brady Dennis</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=author-timestamp><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>October
31, 2018<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><a
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/31/startling-new-research-finds-large-buildup-heat-oceans-suggesting-faster-rate-global-warming/?utm_term=.12e974b2db74"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/31/startling-new-research-finds-large-buildup-heat-oceans-suggesting-faster-rate-global-warming/?utm_term=.12e974b2db74</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:16.5pt;vertical-align:baseline'><span
style='color:#666666'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>The world’s
oceans have been soaking up far more excess heat in recent decades than
scientists realized, suggesting that Earth could be set to warm even faster
than predicted in the years ahead, according to new research published
Wednesday.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;
outline: 0px'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Over
the past quarter-century, Earth’s oceans have retained 60 percent more
heat each year than scientists previously had thought, said Laure Resplandy, a
geoscientist at Princeton University who led<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8" target="_blank"><span
style='color:#2C6CB4'>the startling study published Wednesday</span></a><span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>in the journal Nature. The difference
represents an enormous amount of additional energy, originating from the sun
and trapped by Earth’s atmosphere — the yearly amount representing
more than eight times the world’s annual energy consumption.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;
outline: 0px'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>In
the scientific realm, the new findings help resolve long-running doubts about
the rate of the warming of the oceans before 2007, when reliable measurements
from devices called “<a
href="http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/How_Argo_floats.html" target="_blank"><span
style='color:#2C6CB4'>Argo floats</span></a>” were put to use worldwide.
Before that, differing types of temperature records — and an overall lack
of them — contributed to murkiness about how quickly the oceans were
heating up.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>The
higher-than-expected amount of heat in the oceans means more heat is being
retained within Earth’s climate system each year, rather than escaping
into space. In essence, more heat in the oceans signals that global warming is
more advanced than scientists thought.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>“We thought
that we got away with not a lot of warming in both the ocean and the atmosphere
for the amount of CO2 that we emitted,” said Resplandy, who published the
work with experts from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and several
other institutions in the United States, China, France and Germany. “But
we were wrong. The planet warmed more than we thought. It was hidden from us
just because we didn’t sample it right. But it was there. It was in the
ocean already.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Wednesday’s study also could have
important policy implications. If ocean temperatures are rising more rapidly
than previously calculated, that could leave nations even less time to
dramatically cut the world’s emissions of carbon dioxide, in the hope of
limiting global warming to the ambitious goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7
degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels by the end of this century.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;
outline: 0px'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>The
world already has warmed one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) since the
late 19th century. Scientists backed by the United Nations<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/08/world-has-only-years-get-climate-change-under-control-un-scientists-say/"><span
style='color:#2C6CB4'>reported this month</span></a><span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>that with warming projected to
steadily increase, the world faces a daunting challenge in trying to limit that
warming to only another half-degree Celsius. The group found that it would take
“unprecedented” action by leaders across the globe over the coming
decade to even have a shot at that goal.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;
outline: 0px'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Meanwhile,
the Trump administration has continued to roll back regulations aimed at
reducing carbon emissions from vehicles, coal plants and other sources and has
said it intends to withdraw from the Paris climate accord. In one instance, the
administration<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/trump-administration-sees-a-7-degree-rise-in-global-temperatures-by-2100/2018/09/27/b9c6fada-bb45-11e8-bdc0-90f81cc58c5d_story.html?utm_term=.fa78b88904a3"><span
style='color:#2C6CB4'>relied on an assumption</span></a><span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>that the planet will warm a disastrous
seven degrees Fahrenheit, or about four degrees Celsius, by the end of the
century in arguing that a proposal to ease vehicle fuel-efficiency standards
would have only minor climate impacts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>The new research
underscores the potential consequences of global inaction. Rapidly warming
oceans mean that seas will rise faster and that more heat will be delivered to
critical locations that already are facing the effects of a warming climate,
such as coral reefs in the tropics and the ice sheets of Greenland and
Antarctica.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>“In case the
larger estimate of ocean heat uptake turns out to be true, adaptation to
— and mitigation of — our changing climate would become more
urgent,” said Pieter Tans, who is the leader of the Carbon Cycle Greenhouse
Gases Group at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and was not
involved in the study.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>The oceans absorb
more than 90 percent of the excess energy trapped within the world’s
atmosphere.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>The new research does
not measure the ocean’s temperature directly. Rather, it measures the
volume of gases, specifically oxygen and carbon dioxide, that have escaped the
ocean in recent decades and headed into the atmosphere as it heats up. The
method offered scientists a reliable indicator of ocean temperature change
because it reflects a fundamental behavior of a liquid when heated.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>“When the ocean
warms, it loses some gas to the atmosphere,” Resplandy said.
“That’s an analogy that I make all the time: If you leave your Coke
in the sun, it will lose the gas.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;
outline: 0px'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>This
approach allowed researchers to recheck the contested<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/How_Argo_floats.html" target="_blank"><span
style='color:#2C6CB4'>history of ocean temperatures in a different and novel
way</span></a>. In doing so, they came up with a higher number for how much
warming the oceans have experienced over time.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>“I feel like
this is a triumph of Earth-system science. That we could get confirmation from
atmospheric gases of ocean heat content is extraordinary,” said Joellen
Russell, a professor and oceanographer at the University of Arizona.
“You’ve got the A team here on this paper.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>But Russell said the
findings are hardly as uplifting.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>The report
“does have implications for climate sensitivity, meaning, how warm does a
certain amount of CO2 make us?” Russell said, adding that the world could
have a smaller “carbon budget” than once thought. That budget
refers to the amount of carbon dioxide humans can emit while still being able
to keep warming below dangerous levels.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>The scientists
calculated that because of the increased heat already stored in the ocean, the
maximum emissions that the world can produce while still avoiding a warming of
two degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) would have to be reduced by 25 percent.
That represents a very significant shrinkage of an already very narrow carbon
“budget.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>The U.N. panel of
climate scientists said recently that global carbon emissions must be cut in
half by 2030 if the world hopes to remain beneath 1.5 Celsius of warming. But
Resplandy said that the evidence of faster-warming oceans “shifts the
probability, making it harder to stay below the 1.5-degree temperature
target."<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Understanding what is
happening with Earth’s oceans is critical, because they, far more than
the atmosphere, are the mirror of ongoing climate change.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;
outline: 0px'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>According
to a major climate report<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://science2017.globalchange.gov/" target="_blank"><span
style='color:#2C6CB4'>released last year</span></a><span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>by the U.S. government, the
world’s oceans have absorbed about 93 percent of the excess heat caused
by greenhouse gases since the mid-20th century. Scientists have found that
ocean heat has increased at all depths since the 1960s, while surface waters
also have warmed. The federal climate report projected a global increase in
average sea surface temperatures of as much as nearly five degrees Fahrenheit
by 2100 if emissions continue unabated, with even higher levels of warming in
some U.S. coastal regions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;vertical-align:baseline'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>The world’s
oceans also absorb more than a quarter of the carbon dioxide emitted annually
from human activities — an effect making them more acidic and threatening
fragile ecosystems, federal researchers say. “The rate of acidification
is unparalleled in at least the past 66 million years,” the government
climate report stated.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Paul Durack, a
research scientist at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California,
said Wednesday’s study offers “a really interesting new
insight” and is “quite alarming.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>The warming found in
the study is “more than twice the rates of long-term warming estimates
from the 1960s and ’70s to the present,” Durack said, adding that
if these rates are validated by further studies, “it means the rate of
warming and the sensitivity of the Earth’s system to greenhouse gases is
at the upper end.” He said that if scientists have underestimated the amount
of heat taken up by the oceans, “it will mean we need to go back to the
drawing board” on the aggressiveness of mitigation actions the world
needs to take promptly to limit future warming.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Beyond the long-term
implications of warmer oceans, Russell added that in the short term, even small
changes in ocean temperatures can affect weather in specific places. For
instance, scientists have said warmer oceans off the coast of New England have
contributed to more-intense winter storms.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:0in;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>“We’re
only just now discovering how important ocean warming is to our daily lives, to
our daily weather,” she said.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>////////////////////////<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Nature </span></i><span
class=visually-hidden><b><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>volume</span></b></span><b><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> 563</span></b><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>, <span class=visually-hidden>pages
</span>105–108<span class=apple-converted-space> </span>(2018)<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8#article-info"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>31 October 2018</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Quantification
of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O<sub>2</sub><span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>and CO<sub>2</sub>composition</span></b><span
style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8#auth-1"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>L. Resplandy</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8#auth-2"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>R. F. Keeling</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8#auth-3"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>Y. Eddebbar</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8#auth-4"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>M. K. Brooks</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8#auth-5"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>R. Wang</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8#auth-6"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>L. Bopp</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8#auth-7"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>M. C. Long</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8#auth-8"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>J. P. Dunne</span></a>,<a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8#auth-9"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>W. Koeve</span></a><span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>&<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8#auth-10"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>A. Oschlies</span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='font-size:1.4rem'><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>Abstract<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;
letter-spacing:.15pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='word-wrap: break-word'><span style='font-size:13.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>The ocean
is the main source of thermal inertia in the climate system</span><sup><span
style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;
letter-spacing:.15pt'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8#ref-CR1"
title="IPCC. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2013)."
id=ref-link-section-d2566e600><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>1</span></a></span></sup><span style='font-size:13.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>. During
recent decades, ocean heat uptake has been quantified by using hydrographic
temperature measurements and data from the Argo float program, which expanded
its coverage after 2007</span><sup><span style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8#ref-CR2"
title="Abraham, J. P. et al. A review of global ocean temperature observations: implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change. Rev. Geophys. 51, 450–483 (2013)."
id=ref-link-section-d2566e604><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>2</span></a>,<a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8#ref-CR3"
title="Riser, S. C. et al. Fifteen years of ocean observations with the global Argo array. Nat. Clim. Chang
e 6, 145–153 (2016)."
id=ref-link-section-d2566e607><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>3</span></a></span></sup><span style='font-size:13.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>. However,
these estimates all use the same imperfect ocean dataset and share additional
uncertainties resulting from sparse coverage, especially before 2007</span><sup><span
style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;
letter-spacing:.15pt'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8#ref-CR4"
title="Boyer, T. et al. Sensitivity of global upper-ocean heat content estimates to mapping methods, XBT bias corrections, and baseline climatologies. J. Clim. 29, 4817–4842 (2016)."
id=ref-link-section-d2566e611><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>4</span></a>,<a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8#ref-CR5"
title="Cheng, L. et al. XBT science: assessment of instrumental biases and errors. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 97, 924–933 (2016)."
id=ref-link-section-d2566e614><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>5</span></a></span></sup><span style='font-size:13.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>. Here we
provide an independent estimate by using measurements of atmospheric oxygen (O</span><sub><span
style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;
letter-spacing:.15pt'>2</span></sub><span style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>) and carbon dioxide
(CO</span><sub><span style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>2</span></sub><span style='font-size:13.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>)—levels
of which increase as the ocean warms and releases gases—as a whole-ocean
thermometer. We show that the ocean gained
1.33 ± 0.20 × 10</span><sup><span style='font-size:
9.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>22</span></sup><span
style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;
letter-spacing:.15pt'> joules of heat per year between 1991 and 2016,
equivalent to a planetary energy imbalance of 0.83 ± 0.11 watts per
square metre of Earth’s surface. We also find that the ocean-warming
effect that led to the outgassing of O</span><sub><span style='font-size:9.5pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>2</span></sub><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'> </span></span><span style='font-size:
13.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>and
CO</span><sub><span style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>2</span></sub><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'> </span></span><span style='font-size:
13.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>can
be isolated from the direct effects of anthropogenic emissions and CO</span><sub><span
style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;
letter-spacing:.15pt'>2</span></sub><span style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>sinks. Our
result—which relies on high-precision O</span><sub><span
style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;
letter-spacing:.15pt'>2</span></sub><span class=apple-converted-space><span
style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;
letter-spacing:.15pt'> </span></span><span style='font-size:13.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>measurements
dating back to 1991</span><sup><span style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8#ref-CR6"
title="Keeling, R. F. & Manning, A. C. in Treatise on Geochemistry 385–404 (Elsevier, Oxford, 2014)."
id=ref-link-section-d2566e640><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>6</span></a></span></sup><span style='font-size:13.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>—suggests
that ocean warming is at the high end of previous estimates, with implications
for policy-relevant measurements of the Earth response to climate change, such
as climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases</span><sup><span style='font-size:
9.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8#ref-CR7"
title="Forster, P. M. Inference of climate sensitivity from analysis of Earth’s energy budget. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 44, 85–106 (2016)."
id=ref-link-section-d2566e645><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>7</span></a></span></sup><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'> </span></span><span style='font-size:
13.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>and
the thermal component of sea-level rise</span><sup><span style='font-size:9.5pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8#ref-CR8"
title="Church, J. A. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 1137–1216 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2013)."
id=ref-link-section-d2566e649><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>8</span></a></span></sup><span style='font-size:13.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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