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<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Nature </span></i><span
class=visually-hidden><b><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>volume</span></b></span><b><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> 564</span></b><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>, <span class=visually-hidden>pages
</span>201–206<span class=apple-converted-space> </span>(2018)<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-id=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#article-info"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>Published:<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>12 December 2018</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<h1 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:10.5pt;
margin-left:0in;font-size:3rem'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Increased
variability of eastern Pacific El Niño under greenhouse warming<o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-id=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#auth-1"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>Wenju Cai</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-id=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#auth-2"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>Guojian Wang</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-id=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#auth-3"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>Boris Dewitte</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-id=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#auth-4"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>Lixin Wu</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-id=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#auth-5"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>Agus Santoso</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-id=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#auth-6"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>Ken Takahashi</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-id=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#auth-7"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>Yun Yang</span></a>,<a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-id=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#auth-8"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>Aude Carréric</span></a><span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>&<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-id=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#auth-9"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>Michael J. McPhaden</span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=text14 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
21.0pt;margin-left:0in;font-size:1.4rem'><b><span style='font-size:18.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>Abstract<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:21.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:22.45pt;background:white;word-wrap: break-word'
id="geom_inter_1544719013966_43_5"><span style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>The El
Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant and most consequential
climate variation on Earth, and is characterized by warming of equatorial
Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the El Niño phase and cooling
during the La Niña phase. ENSO events tend to have a centre—corresponding
to the location of the maximum SST anomaly—in either the central
equatorial Pacific (5° S–5° N, 160° E–150° W)
or the eastern equatorial Pacific (5° S–5° N,
150°–90° W); these two distinct types of ENSO event are referred to
as the CP-ENSO and EP-ENSO regimes, respectively. How the ENSO may change under
future greenhouse warming is unknown, owing to a lack of inter-model agreement
over the response of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific to such warming.
Here we find a robust increase in future EP-ENSO SST variability among CMIP5
climate models that simulate the two distinct ENSO regimes. We show that the
EP-ENSO SST anomaly pattern and its centre differ greatly from one model to
another, and therefore cannot be well represented by a single SST
‘index’ at the observed centre. However, although the locations of
the anomaly centres differ in each model, we find a robust increase in SST
variability at each anomaly centre across the majority of models considered.
This increase in variability is largely due to greenhouse-warming-induced
intensification of upper-ocean stratification in the equatorial Pacific, which
enhances ocean–atmosphere coupling. An increase in SST variance implies
an increase in the number of ‘strong’ EP-El Niño events
(corresponding to large SST anomalies) and associated extreme weather events.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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