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<![endif]--> <!--StartFragment--><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px;">EL PATRÓN CLIMÁTICO EL NIÑO OSCILACIÓN SUR 2018 Y SU PROSPECTIVA 2019. Este patrón climático es conocido por sus siglas ENOS. Este patrón climático es un evento continuo, predecible pero errática mente cíclico (especialmente sus episodios extremos, cada cinco a siete años). ENOS posee tres episodios, cálido, frío, y neutro. Al episodio cálido se le conoce como El Niño y al episodio frío como La Niña. Los episodios suceden uno tras otro en forma continua, por ejemplo, El Niño muy fuerte ocurrido entre diciembre 2014 y junio 2016; y que a continuación tuvimos Condiciones Neutras de dos meses de duración julio y agosto del 2016; a continuación ocurrió La Niña Débil entre septiembre 2016 y enero 2017 etc. No debemos confundir ENOS con El Fenómeno del Niño Costero 2017 que fue impredecible y temporal, y que se debió a las anomalías de los viento del oeste y del norte, y al debilitamiento inusual del Anticiclón de Pacífico Sur y por lo tanto produjo que la Zona de Convergencia Intertropical (trópico) invada nuestras costas hasta llegar a los 10°S (Huarmey) produciendo inundaciones de gran magnitud y cuantiosas pérdidas materiales y de vidas. Mi pronóstico, tomando los valores centrales del estadístico ARIMA, El Niño Oceánico Débil duraría hasta julio-2019. Pero según el error estándar del estimado de ARIMA de ± 0.1, este episodio cálido podría durar hasta agosto-2019 o junio-2019. Además, El Fenómeno del Niño Costero 2017 no se va repetir en el verano del 2019, debido a la presencia del Anticiclón del Pacifico Sur con Actividad Alta-Mediana, a su vez, El Patrón Climático El Niño Costero débil se vería menguado porque las ondas Kelvin (aguas calientes que viajan desde Indonesia hacia las costas ecuatorianas y peruanas) serían retardadas o neutralizadas por los fuertes vientos alisios fomentados por el anticiclón) Actualmente ya se produjo una onda Kelvin que llegaría a las costas sur americanas la quincena de marzo si el APS se debilita para entonces.<o:p></o:p></p><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: ES-PE; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;" data-mce-style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: ES-PE; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330822109_Prospectiva_El_Nino_Costero_2019" data-mce-href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330822109_Prospectiva_El_Nino_Costero_2019">https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330822109_Prospectiva_El_Nino_Costero_2019</a></span><!--EndFragment--> <br></div><br><div id="03351ed3-74e6-440b-b95e-9abd7d7e2172"><span style="font-size: medium;" data-mce-style="font-size: medium;"> </span><p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;" data-mce-style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;" data-mce-style="font-size: medium;"><b><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma;" data-mce-style="color: black; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma;">Manuel Antonio Plácido Cárdenas</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;" data-mce-style="color: black; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></span></p><span style="font-size: medium;" data-mce-style="font-size: medium;"> </span><p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;" data-mce-style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma;" data-mce-style="color: black; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;" data-mce-style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;" data-mce-style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br></span></p><span style="font-size: medium;" data-mce-style="font-size: medium;"> </span></div></div><div><br></div></div></body></html>
<table><tr><td bgcolor=#ffffff><font color=#000000><pre>Esta dirección de correo electrónico se envía en nombre de Instituto Tecnológico de la Producción, una entidad estatal adscrita al Ministerio de la Producción del Gobierno peruano. Esta dirección de correo electrónico puede estar relacionada con o ser enviado con otros miembros del Ministerio de la Producción y/o los CITE.
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CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: The information contained in this email and any attachments are confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, please immediately notify the sender by replying to this email and delete this email and any attachments from your system. Any disclosure, copying or distribution of the information contained in this email or any action taken or omitted to be taken in this regard is prohibited and may be unlawful.
DISCLAIMER: Instituto Tecnológico de la Producción being permitted by law, excludes by this present any responsibility for the accuracy or reliability of the information contained for transmission, reception, storage or use of such information of any manner and of any type.</pre></font></td></tr></table>