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<p class=contributor-listreveal style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;
line-height:18.0pt;background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><cite><span style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif"'>Science </span></cite><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> </span></span><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>01 Mar 2019:<br>
Vol. 363, Issue 6430, pp. 979-983<br>
DOI: 10.1126/science.aau1758<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h1 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:11.25pt;
margin-left:0in;background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
font-weight:normal'><o:p> </o:p></span></h1>
<h1 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:11.25pt;
margin-left:0in;background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Impacts
of historical warming on marine fisheries production<o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:0in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:18.0pt;
mso-list:l3 level1 lfo1;background:white'><![if !supportLists]><b><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>1.<span
style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span></b><![endif]><span
class=name><b><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Christopher M. Free</span></b></span><b><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><a
href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/979?utm_campaign=toc_sci-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-1"
id=xref-award-group-3-1><sup><span style='font-size:8.0pt;color:windowtext;
border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in;font-weight:normal'>1</span></sup></a></span></b><span
class=xref-sep><b><span style='font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>,</span></b></span><b><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><a
href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/979?utm_campaign=toc_sci-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-2"
id=xref-aff-2-1><sup><span style='font-size:8.0pt;color:windowtext;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in;font-weight:normal'>2</span></sup></a></span></b><span
class=xref-sep><b><span style='font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>,</span></b></span><b><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><a
href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/979?utm_campaign=toc_sci-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#corresp-1"
id=xref-corresp-1-1><span style='font-size:8.0pt;color:windowtext;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in;font-weight:normal'>*</span></a>,<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><span
class=name>James T. Thorson</span><a
href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/979?utm_campaign=toc_sci-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-3"
id=xref-aff-3-1><sup><span style='font-size:8.0pt;color:windowtext;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in;font-weight:normal'>3</span></sup></a></span></b><span
class=xref-sep><b><span style='font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>,</span></b></span><b><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><a
href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/979?utm_campaign=toc_sci-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-4"
id=xref-aff-4-1><sup><span style='font-size:8.0pt;color:windowtext;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in;font-weight:normal'>4</span></sup></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><span class=name>Malin L. Pinsky</span><a
href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/979?utm_campaign=toc_sci-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-5"
id=xref-award-group-1-1><sup><span style='font-size:8.0pt;color:windowtext;
border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in;font-weight:normal'>5</span></sup></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><span class=name>Kiva L. Oken</span><a
href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/979?utm_campaign=toc_sci-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-1"
id=xref-aff-1-2><sup><span style='font-size:8.0pt;color:windowtext;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in;font-weight:normal'>1</span></sup></a></span></b><span
class=xref-sep><b><span style='font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>,</span></b></span><b><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><a
href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/979?utm_campaign=toc_sci-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-6"
id=xref-aff-6-1><sup><span style='font-size:8.0pt;color:windowtext;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in;font-weight:normal'>6</span></sup></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><span class=name>John Wiedenmann</span><a
href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/979?utm_campaign=toc_sci-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-5"
id=xref-aff-5-2><sup><span style='font-size:8.0pt;color:windowtext;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in;font-weight:normal'>5</span></sup></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><span class=name>Olaf P. Jensen</span><a
href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/979?utm_campaign=toc_sci-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-1"
id=xref-aff-1-3><sup><span style='font-size:8.0pt;color:windowtext;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;
padding:0in;font-weight:normal'>1</span></sup></a><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-left:0in;text-indent:
-.25in;line-height:18.0pt;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo5;background:white;box-sizing: inherit;
cursor:pointer;font-size:0.75rem'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Symbol'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>ˇ<span
style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>
</span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<h2 style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;background:#E6E6E6;box-sizing: inherit;
font-size:1.5rem'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Accounting for
a warming ocean<o:p></o:p></span></h2>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:2.8pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:11.25pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:18.0pt;background:#E6E6E6;box-sizing: inherit;
transition: background-color 1s ease-in-out 1s' id=p-2><span style='font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif"'>Fisheries provide food and support livelihoods across the
world. They are also under extreme pressure, with many stocks overfished and
poorly managed. Climate change will add to the burden fish stocks bear, but
such impacts remain largely unknown. Free<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><em><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>et al.</span></em>used
temperature-specific models and hindcasting across fish stocks to determine the
degree to which warming has, and will, affect fish species (see the Perspective
by Plagányi). They found that an overall reduction in yield has occurred over
the past 80 years. Furthermore, although some species are predicted to respond
positively to warming waters, the majority will experience a negative impact on
growth. As our world warms, responsible and active management of fisheries
harvests will become even more important.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:11.25pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:0in;
margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:18.0pt;background:#E6E6E6;
box-sizing: inherit;transition: background-color 1s ease-in-out 1s' id=p-3><em><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Science</span></em><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>, this issue p.<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="http://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aau1758"><b><span
style='color:windowtext'>979</span></b></a>; see also p.<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="http://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aaw5824"><b><span
style='color:windowtext'>930</span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:11.25pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:0in;
margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:18.0pt;background:#E6E6E6'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<h2 style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;background:#E6E6E6;box-sizing: inherit;
font-size:1.5rem'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Abstract<o:p></o:p></span></h2>
<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:2.8pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:0in;
margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:18.0pt;background:#E6E6E6;
box-sizing: inherit;transition: background-color 1s ease-in-out 1s' id=p-5><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Climate change is altering habitats
for marine fishes and invertebrates, but the net effect of these changes on
potential food production is unknown. We used temperature-dependent population
models to measure the influence of warming on the productivity of 235
populations of 124 species in 38 ecoregions. Some populations responded
significantly positively (<em><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>n</span></em><span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>= 9 populations) and others responded
significantly negatively (<em><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>n</span></em><span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>= 19 populations) to warming, with the
direction and magnitude of the response explained by ecoregion, taxonomy, life
history, and exploitation history. Hindcasts indicate that the maximum
sustainable yield of the evaluated populations decreased by 4.1% from 1930 to
2010, with five ecoregions experiencing losses of 15 to 35%. Outcomes of
fisheries management—including long-term food provisioning—will be
improved by accounting for changing productivity in a warmer ocean.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
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