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<div class=Section1>

<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Nature
</span></i><span class=visually-hidden><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>volume</span></b></span><b><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> 568</span></b><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>, <span
class=visually-hidden>pages</span>382–386<span class=apple-converted-space> </span>(2019)<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><span class=pl6>|</span><span
class=apple-converted-space> </span> <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190418&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190418&sap-outbound-id=D05AD92E59587A9B26BD20391A72330DEA4E5135#article-info"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>Published:<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>08 April 2019</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>

<h1 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:10.5pt;
margin-left:0in;font-size:3rem'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Global
glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to
2016<o:p></o:p></span></h1>

<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190418&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190418&sap-outbound-id=D05AD92E59587A9B26BD20391A72330DEA4E5135#auth-1"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>M. Zemp</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190418&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190418&sap-outbound-id=D05AD92E59587A9B26BD20391A72330DEA4E5135#auth-2"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>M. Huss</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190418&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190418&sap-outbound-id=D05AD92E59587A9B26BD20391A72330DEA4E5135#auth-3"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>E. Thibert</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190418&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190418&sap-outbound-id=D05AD92E59587A9B26BD20391A72330DEA4E5135#auth-4"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>N. Eckert</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190418&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190418&sap-outbound-id=D05AD92E59587A9B26BD20391A72330DEA4E5135#auth-5"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>R. McNabb</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190418&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190418&sap-outbound-id=D05AD92E59587A9B26BD20391A72330DEA4E5135#auth-6"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>J. Huber</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190418&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190418&sap-outbound-id=D05AD92E59587A9B26BD20391A72330DEA4E5135#auth-7"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>M. Barandun</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190418&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190418&sap-outbound-id=D05AD92E59587A9B26BD20391A72330DEA4E5135#auth-8"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>H. Machguth</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190418&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190418&sap-outbound-id=D05AD92E59587A9B26BD20391A72330DEA4E5135#auth-9"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>S. U. Nussbaumer</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190418&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190418&sap-outbound-id=D05AD92E59587A9B26BD20391A72330DEA4E5135#auth-10"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>I. Gärtner-Roer</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190418&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190418&sap-outbound-id=D05AD92E59587A9B26BD20391A72330DEA4E5135#auth-11"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>L. Thomson</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190418&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190418&sap-outbound-id=D05AD92E59587A9B26BD20391A72330DEA4E5135#auth-12"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>F. Paul</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190418&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190418&sap-outbound-id=D05AD92E59587A9B26BD20391A72330DEA4E5135#auth-13"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>F. Maussion</span></a>,<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190418&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190418&sap-outbound-id=D05AD92E59587A9B26BD20391A72330DEA4E5135#auth-14"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>S. Kutuzov</span></a><span
class=apple-converted-space> </span>&<span
class=apple-converted-space> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190418&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190418&sap-outbound-id=D05AD92E59587A9B26BD20391A72330DEA4E5135#auth-15"><span
style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>J. G. Cogley</span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<h2 style='mso-margin-top-alt:10.5pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:21.0pt;
margin-left:0in;background:#EEEEEE'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>Abstract<o:p></o:p></span></h2>

<p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:21.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:22.45pt;background:white;word-wrap: break-word'><span
style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;
letter-spacing:.15pt'>Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic ice
sheets cover an area of approximately 706,000 square kilometres globally</span><sup><span
style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;
letter-spacing:.15pt'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0#ref-CR1"
title="RGI Consortium Randolph Glacier Inventory (v.6.0): A Dataset of Global Glacier Outlines. Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Boulder, Colorado USA (RGI Technical Report, 2017)                      https://doi.org/10.7265/N5-RGI-60                    "
id=ref-link-section-d39889e722><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>1</span></a></span></sup><span style='font-size:13.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>, with an
estimated total volume of 170,000 cubic kilometres, or 0.4 metres of potential
sea-level-rise equivalent</span><sup><span style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0#ref-CR2"
title="Huss, M. & Farinotti, D. Distributed ice thickness and volume of all glaciers around the globe. J. Geophys. Res. 117, F04010 (2012)."
id=ref-link-section-d39889e726><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>2</span></a></span></sup><span style='font-size:13.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>.
Retreating and thinning glaciers are icons of climate change</span><sup><span
style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;
letter-spacing:.15pt'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0#ref-CR3"
title="Bojinski, S. et al. The concept of essential climate variables in support of climate research, applications, and policy. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 95, 1431–1443 (2014)."
id=ref-link-section-d39889e730><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>3</span></a></span></sup><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'> </span></span><span style='font-size:
13.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>and
affect regional runoff</span><sup><span style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0#ref-CR4"
title="Huss, M. & Hock, R. Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss. Nat. Clim. Chang. 8, 135–140 (2018)."
id=ref-link-section-d39889e734><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>4</span></a></span></sup><span
class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'> </span></span><span style='font-size:
13.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>as
well as global sea level</span><sup><span style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0#ref-CR5"
title="Marzeion, B., Cogley, J. G., Richter, K. & Parkes, D. Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes. Science 345, 919–921 (2014)."
id=ref-link-section-d39889e738><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>5</span></a>,<a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0#ref-CR6"
title="Radić, V. et al. Regional and global projections of twenty-first century glacier mass changes in response to climate scenarios from global climate models. Clim. Dyn. 42, 37–58 (2014)."
id=ref-link-section-d39889e741><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>6</span></a></span></sup><span style='font-size:13.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>. In
past reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, estimates
of changes in glacier mass were based on the multiplication of averaged or
interpolated results from available observations of a few hundred glaciers by
defined regional glacier areas</span><sup><span style='font-size:9.5pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190418&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190418&sap-outbound-id=D05AD92E59587A9B26BD20391A72330DEA4E5135#ref-CR7"
title="Cogley, J. G. Geodetic and direct mass-balance measurements: comparison and joint analysis. Ann. Glaciol. 50, 96–100 (2009)."
id=ref-link-section-d39889e746><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>7</span></a>,<a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190418&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190418&sap-outbound-id=D05AD92E59587A9B26BD20391A72330DEA4E5135#ref-CR8"
title="Kaser, G., Cogley, J. G., Dyurgerov, M. B., Meier, M. F. & Ohmura, A. Mass balance of glaciers and ice caps: consensus estimates for 1961–2004. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L19501 (2006)."
id="ref-link-section-d39889e746_1"><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:
none;vertical-align:baseline'>8</span></a>,<a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20190418&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190418&sap-outbound-id=D05AD92E59587A9B26BD20391A72330DEA4E5135#ref-CR9"
title="Dyurgerov, M. B. & Meier, M. F. Glaciers and the Changing Earth System: A 2004 Snapshot. Report INSTAAR/OP-58 (Instaar, 2005)."
id="ref-link-section-d39889e746_2"><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:
none;vertical-align:baseline'>9</span></a>,<a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0#ref-CR10"
title="Ohmura, A. in The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics Vol. 150 (eds Sparks, R. S. J. & Hawkesworth, C. J.) 239–257 (American Geophysical Union, 2004)."
id=ref-link-section-d39889e749><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>10</span></a></span></sup><span style='font-size:13.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>. For
data-scarce regions, these results had to be complemented with estimates based
on satellite altimetry and gravimetry</span><sup><span style='font-size:9.5pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0#ref-CR11"
title="Gardner, A. S. et al. A reconciled estimate of glacier contributions to sea level rise: 2003 to 2009. Science 340, 852–857 (2013)."
id=ref-link-section-d39889e753><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>11</span></a></span></sup><span style='font-size:13.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>. These
past approaches were challenged by the small number and heterogeneous
spatiotemporal distribution of in situ measurement series and their often
unknown ability to represent their respective mountain ranges, as well as by
the spatial limitations of satellite altimetry (for which only point data are
available) and gravimetry (with its coarse resolution). Here we use an
extrapolation of glaciological and geodetic observations to show that glaciers
contributed 27 ± 22 millimetres to global mean sea-level rise
from 1961 to 2016. Regional specific-mass-change rates for 2006–2016 range
from −0.1 metres to −1.2 metres of water equivalent per year, resulting in a
global sea-level contribution of 335 ± 144 gigatonnes, or
0.92 ± 0.39 millimetres, per year. Although statistical uncertainty
ranges overlap, our conclusions suggest that glacier mass loss may be larger
than previously reported</span><sup><span style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0#ref-CR11"
title="Gardner, A. S. et al. A reconciled estimate of glacier contributions to sea level rise: 2003 to 2009. Science 340, 852–857 (2013)."
id=ref-link-section-d39889e757><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>11</span></a></span></sup><span style='font-size:13.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>. The
present glacier mass loss is equivalent to the sea-level contribution of the
Greenland Ice Sheet</span><sup><span style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0#ref-CR12"
title="Khan, S. A. et al. Greenland ice sheet mass balance: a review. Rep. Prog. Phys. 78, 046801 (2015)."
id=ref-link-section-d39889e761><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>12</span></a></span></sup><span style='font-size:13.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>, clearly
exceeds the loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet</span><sup><span
style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;
letter-spacing:.15pt'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0#ref-CR13"
title="IMBIE. Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017. Nature 558, 219–222 (2018)."
id=ref-link-section-d39889e765><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>13</span></a></span></sup><span style='font-size:13.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>, and
accounts for 25 to 30 per cent of the total observed sea-level rise</span><sup><span
style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;
letter-spacing:.15pt'><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0#ref-CR14"
title="Watson, C. S. et al. Unabated global mean sea-level rise over the satellite altimeter era. Nat. Clim. Chang. 5, 565–568 (2015)."
id=ref-link-section-d39889e769><span style='color:#006699;text-decoration:none;
vertical-align:baseline'>14</span></a></span></sup><span style='font-size:13.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#222222;letter-spacing:.15pt'>. Present
mass-loss rates indicate that glaciers could almost disappear in some mountain
ranges in this century, while heavily glacierized regions will continue to
contribute to sea-level rise beyond 2100.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>

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