[OANNES Foro] Global climate change scenarios in the sea tells of inexorable poleward expansion of thousands of species

[Mario Cabrejos]

·         Diversity and Distributions 

·         First published: 21 March 2017

·         DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12551 


 


Refining and expanding global climate change scenarios in the sea: Poleward
creep complexities, range termini, and setbacks and surges


·         João Canning-Clode, James T. Carlton


0.      

·          

·         Abstract

·          


Aim


Invasion dynamics are sensitive to global-scale changes. New marine
invasions have been recorded in dramatically increasing numbers along the
world's coasts, due, in part, to the global warming of the oceans and the
ability of many successful invasive marine species to tolerate a broader
thermal range than native species. As a response to ocean warming, a
poleward movement of numerous species has been observed in many
biogeographic regions. Our aim was to explore several poorly recognized and
thus rarely studied aspects of ocean climate change scenarios in order to
advance our understanding of finer-grained aspects of poleward movements.

 


Location


Global.

 


Methods


Three scenarios are investigated in our framework: (1) the existence of
networks of complex intraregional origins, routes and destinations of
poleward-moving species, (2) the existence of impenetrable termini where no
further expansion is possible, linked to potential outflow corridors, and
(3) the interplay of a warming ocean with aperiodic cold episodes.

 


Results


Poleward advances consist of distinct regional networks of origins, routes
and destinations, largely undefined in most areas, linked in turn to the
potential existence of endpoints where no further expansion may be possible
without escape routes and/or human-mediated assistance. The interaction of
aperiodic cooling periods may result in temporary setbacks or rate
reductions in range expansions.

 


Main conclusions


The recognition of potentially complex origin-route-destination networks may
significantly advance our predictive capacity of both future invasions and
range expansions and potential impacts. Thus, specific focus on high-profile
donor region species pools linked to established vector routes may yield far
more robust management scenarios than currently in place. While it is
probable that the frequency of climate-mediated surges (inevitable warming)
and setbacks (cooling periods) of species invasions will increase over time,
the net outcome is likely to be positive, resulting in an inexorable
poleward expansion of thousands of species.

 



---
This email is free from viruses and malware because avast! Antivirus protection is active.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus
------------ próxima parte ------------
Se ha borrado un adjunto en formato HTML...
URL: <http://lista.oannes.org.pe/pipermail/oannes-oannes.org.pe/attachments/20170327/f6df6a4f/attachment.html>