[OANNES Foro] No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium

[Mario Cabrejos]

Science  27 Mar 2020:
Vol. 367, Issue 6485, pp. 1477-1481
DOI: 10.1126/science.aax2000 

No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium

Sylvia G. Dee
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/1477?utm_campaign=toc_sci-m
ag_2020-03-26&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=3261778#aff-1> 1,
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/1477?utm_campaign=toc_sci-m
ag_2020-03-26&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=3261778#corresp-1> *, Kim M. Cobb
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/1477?utm_campaign=toc_sci-m
ag_2020-03-26&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=3261778#aff-2> 2, Julien Emile-Geay
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/1477?utm_campaign=toc_sci-m
ag_2020-03-26&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=3261778#aff-3> 3, Toby R. Ault
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/1477?utm_campaign=toc_sci-m
ag_2020-03-26&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=3261778#aff-4> 4, R. Lawrence Edwards
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/1477?utm_campaign=toc_sci-m
ag_2020-03-26&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=3261778#aff-5> 5, Hai Cheng
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/1477?utm_campaign=toc_sci-m
ag_2020-03-26&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=3261778#aff-6> 6,
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/1477?utm_campaign=toc_sci-m
ag_2020-03-26&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=3261778#aff-5> 5, Christopher D.
Charles
<https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/1477?utm_campaign=toc_sci-m
ag_2020-03-26&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=3261778#aff-7> 7

Not a big deal after all

Do volcanic eruptions affect El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
variability? Models indicate that sulfate aerosols resulting from large
eruptions can initiate an El Niño–like response in the tropical Pacific, but
observations have not shown evidence of such behavior. Dee et al. present an
oxygen-isotope time series of fossil corals from the central tropical
Pacific to investigate ENSO's response to large volcanic eruptions during
the past millennium. They found a weak tendency for an El Niño–like response
in the year after an eruption, but not one that was statistically
significant. These results suggest that large volcanic events have not
triggered a detectable response in ENSO over the past thousand years and
that their impact is small relative to the degree of natural variability.

Science, this issue p.
<https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aax2000> 1477

Abstract

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes global climate patterns yet
its sensitivity to external climate forcing remains uncertain. Modeling
studies suggest that ENSO is sensitive to sulfate aerosol forcing associated
with explosive volcanism but observational support for this effect remains
ambiguous. Here, we used absolutely dated fossil corals from the central
tropical Pacific to gauge ENSO’s response to large volcanic eruptions of the
last millennium. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a weak tendency for an El
Niño–like response in the year after an eruption, but this response is not
statistically significant, nor does it appear after the outsized 1257
Samalas eruption. Our results suggest that those models showing a strong
ENSO response to volcanic forcing may overestimate the size of the forced
response relative to natural ENSO variability.

 



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