[OANNES Foro] Australia: Se incrementa el riesgo de desarrollo de El Niño

[Milthon Lujan]

Estimado Amigos
En la nota que pueden ver en la parte inferior el consejo de metereologia de
Australia indica que la probabilidad de la presencia de desarrollo de El
Niño se ha incrementado en mas de 50% (superior a lo registrado en los años
normales).

Seria conveniente que nuestros colegas en Perú nos indiquen como van sus
pronosticos, mas vale estar prevenidos...

Saludos


El Nino Risk Is Increasing, Australian Bureau Says

June 3 (Bloomberg) -- The risk of El Nino weather developing this year has
increased, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said, raising the chance of
drought in parts of Asia and Australia and potentially curbing agricultural
output.

The odds are now likely to be greater than 50 percent, more than double the
normal risk in any year, the bureau said today in a statement. An El Nino
may be established by mid-winter in the southern hemisphere, the statement
said. That’s about July.

A repeat of severe El Nino weather conditions experienced from the
Philippines to Australia in 2002 may curb farm output in Asia, possibly
hurting harvests of rice, palm oil, coffee and cocoa. It may also harm
Australia’s wheat crop, helping support a rally that sent wheat futures to
an eight-month high this week.

“When the full effects come in, you’re looking at a wheat crop of less than
half” the average of 22 million metric tons a year in Australia, said Ben
Barber, a broker at Bell Commodities Ltd. Australia will be the world’s
fourth-biggest exporter of wheat in 2009, according to the U.S. Department
of Agriculture.

Wheat futures in Chicago gained 22 percent in the two months through
yesterday, and on June 1 traded at $6.77 a bushel, the highest since Oct. 2.
Wheat for delivery in July traded at $6.6425 a bushel at 4:26 p.m. in
Singapore.

Pacific Ocean

An El Nino occurs when surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise to
above-average levels. The phenomenon affects the jet stream, alters storm
tracks and creates unusual weather patterns. Moderate to strong El Nino
conditions typically bring warmer-than-average weather to the northern U.S.
during winter.

“If recent trends in Pacific climate patterns were to be maintained, an El
Nino event would be established by mid- winter,” David Jones, head of
climate analysis at the bureau’s National Climate Center, said in the
e-mailed statement.

The El Nino that ended in April 1998 caused between $32 billion to $96
billion in losses globally, according to a United Nations’ study. It was
blamed for droughts and famine in Papua New Guinea, a plunge in Peru’s fish
exports, damage to Argentina’s farm production and tornadoes in the U.S.

Asia’s production of rice, a staple for half the world, may decline as an El
Nino reduces rainfall, said Rolando Dy, an agricultural economist at the
Manila-based University of Asia and the Pacific.

Corn, Coconuts

“Rice is very dependent on rainfall and irrigation,” Dy said by phone from
Manila. “Other commodities will also be impacted by El Nino including
coconut, corn, sugarcane and even aquaculture.”

El Ninos occur about every four to seven years and shift weather patterns
around the world. The Australian bureau said El Ninos in 2002 and 2006
brought “widespread and severe” cuts to rainfall in Australia, slashing
agricultural output in the world’s largest wool exporter and second-biggest
barley shipper.

Global wheat production is forecast to drop 3.7 percent to 658 million tons
in the 2009-2010 marketing year, from an estimated 683 million tons a year
earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast in May.

El Nino, which means “little-boy” in Spanish, got its name from Peruvian
fisherman who noticed that warmer sea temperatures reduced their catch
around Christmas. It emerges first in Australia and can take months to
develop.

“It’s still possible that the recent trends may stall without El Nino
thresholds being reached,” the Australian weather forecaster said. “Such an
outcome, however, may still bias the outlook towards drier-than-average
conditions.”

Enlace:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aNPKuwYsPti4&refer=australia



-- 
Blgo. Acui. Milthon B. Lujan Monja
AQUA CENTER SRL
Urb. Santa Cristina C4-16, Nuevo Chimbote
Chimbote - Peru
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