[OANNES Foro] Increased variability of eastern Pacific El Niño under greenhouse warming

[Mario Cabrejos]

Nature volume 564, pages 201–206 (2018) 

 
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&
utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-i
d=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#article-info> Published: 12
December 2018

 


Increased variability of eastern Pacific El Niño under greenhouse warming


 
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&
utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-i
d=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#auth-1> Wenju Cai,
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&
utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-i
d=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#auth-2> Guojian Wang,
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&
utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-i
d=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#auth-3> Boris Dewitte,
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&
utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-i
d=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#auth-4> Lixin Wu,
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&
utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-i
d=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#auth-5> Agus Santoso,
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&
utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-i
d=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#auth-6> Ken Takahashi,
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&
utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-i
d=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#auth-7> Yun Yang,
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&
utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-i
d=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#auth-8> Aude Carréric &
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20181213&
utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20181213&sap-outbound-i
d=F3A0243B1D436BEFAD51B76F3A03D057EF509354#auth-9> Michael J. McPhaden 

Abstract

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant and most
consequential climate variation on Earth, and is characterized by warming of
equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the El Niño phase
and cooling during the La Niña phase. ENSO events tend to have a
centre—corresponding to the location of the maximum SST anomaly—in either
the central equatorial Pacific (5° S–5° N, 160° E–150° W) or the eastern
equatorial Pacific (5° S–5° N, 150°–90° W); these two distinct types of ENSO
event are referred to as the CP-ENSO and EP-ENSO regimes, respectively. How
the ENSO may change under future greenhouse warming is unknown, owing to a
lack of inter-model agreement over the response of SSTs in the eastern
equatorial Pacific to such warming. Here we find a robust increase in future
EP-ENSO SST variability among CMIP5 climate models that simulate the two
distinct ENSO regimes. We show that the EP-ENSO SST anomaly pattern and its
centre differ greatly from one model to another, and therefore cannot be
well represented by a single SST ‘index’ at the observed centre. However,
although the locations of the anomaly centres differ in each model, we find
a robust increase in SST variability at each anomaly centre across the
majority of models considered. This increase in variability is largely due
to greenhouse-warming-induced intensification of upper-ocean stratification
in the equatorial Pacific, which enhances ocean–atmosphere coupling. An
increase in SST variance implies an increase in the number of ‘strong’ EP-El
Niño events (corresponding to large SST anomalies) and associated extreme
weather events.

 



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