[OANNES Foro] El Niño-Southern Oscillation: Atlantic and Indian Oceans can feed back onto Pacific climate too

Dom Mar 3 06:40:04 PST 2019

Science  01 Mar 2019:
Vol. 363, Issue 6430, eaav4236
DOI: 10.1126/science.aav4236

Pantropical climate interactions

1.    Wenju Cai
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-1> 1,
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-2> 2, Lixin Wu
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-1> 1,
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#corresp-1> *, Matthieu
Lengaigne
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-3> 3,
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-4> 4, Tim Li
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-5> 5, Shayne McGregor
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-6> 6,
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-7> 7, Jong-Seong Kug
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-8> 8, Jin-Yi Yu
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-9> 9, Malte F. Stuecker
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-10> 10,
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-11> 11, Agus Santoso
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-2> 2,
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-12> 12, Xichen Li
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-13> 13, Yoo-Geun Ham
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-14> 14, Yoshimitsu
Chikamoto
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-15> 15, Benjamin Ng
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-2> 2, Michael J.
McPhaden
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-16> 16, Yan Du
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-17> 17,
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-18> 18, Dietmar
Dommenget
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-19> 19, 

2.    Fan Jia
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-20> 20, Jules B. Kajtar
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-21> 21, Noel Keenlyside
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-22> 22,
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-23> 23, Xiaopei Lin
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-1> 1, Jing-Jia Luo
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-24> 24, Marta Martín-Rey
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-25> 25,
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-26> 26, Yohan
Ruprich-Robert
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-27> 27, Guojian Wang
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-1> 1,
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-2> 2, 

3.    Shang-Ping Xie
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-28> 28, Yun Yang
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-29> 29, Sarah M. Kang
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-30> 30, Jun-Young Choi
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-14> 14, Bolan Gan
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-1> 1, Geon-Il Kim
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-8> 8, Chang-Eun Kim
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-8> 8, Sunyoung Kim
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-8> 8, Jeong-Hwan Kim
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-14> 14, Ping Chang
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236?utm_campaign=toc_sc
i-mag_2019-02-28&et_rid=34815706&et_cid=2691681#aff-31> 31

·          

Tropical interconnections

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which originates in the tropical Pacific,
affects the rest of the world's tropics by perturbing global atmospheric
circulation. Less appreciated than this influence is how the tropical
Atlantic and Indian Oceans affect the Pacific. Cai et al. review what we
know about these pantropical interactions, discuss possible ways of
improving predictions of current climate variability, and consider how
projecting future climate under different anthropogenic forcing scenarios
may be improved. They argue that making progress in this field will require
sustained global climate observations, climate model improvements, and
theoretical advances.

Science, this issue p.
<http://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aav4236> eaav4236

Structured Abstract

BACKGROUND

Ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropics have a profound influence on
the climate system. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is spawned in
the tropical Pacific, is the most prominent and well-known year-to-year
variation on Earth. Its reach is global, and its impacts on society and the
environment are legion. Because ENSO is so strong, it can excite other modes
of climate variability in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans by altering the
general circulation of the atmosphere. However, ocean-atmosphere
interactions internal to the Atlantic and Indian Oceans are capable of
generating distinct modes of climate variability as well. Whether the
Atlantic and Indian Oceans can feed back onto Pacific climate has been an
ongoing matter of debate. We are now beginning to realize that the tropics,
as a whole, are a tightly interconnected system, with strong feedbacks from
the Indian and Atlantic Oceans onto the Pacific. These two-way interactions
affect the character of ENSO and Pacific decadal variability and shed new
light on the recent hiatus in global warming. Here we review advances in our
understanding of pantropical interbasin climate interactions and their
implications for both climate prediction and future climate projections.

ADVANCES

ENSO fluctuates between warm events (El Niño) and cold events (La Niña).
These events force changes in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans than can feed
back onto the Pacific. Indian Ocean variations, for example, can accelerate
the demise of El Niño and facilitate its transition to La Niña. ENSO events
also exhibit considerable diversity in their amplitude, spatial structure,
and evolution, which matters for how they affect global climate. Sea surface
temperature variations in the equatorial and north tropical Atlantic can
significantly contribute to the diversity of these events. In addition,
tropical interbasin linkages vary on decadal time scales. Warming during a
positive phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability over the past two
decades has strengthened the Atlantic forcing of the Indo-Pacific, leading
to an unprecedented intensification of the Pacific trade winds, cooling of
the tropical Pacific, and warming of the Indian Ocean. The Indo-Pacific
temperature contrast further strengthened the Pacific trade winds, helping
to prolong the cooling in the Pacific. These interactions forced from the
tropical Atlantic were largely responsible for the recent hiatus in global
surface warming. Changes in Pacific mean-state conditions during this hiatus
also affected ENSO diversity considerably.

OUTLOOK

There is tremendous potential for improving seasonal to decadal climate
predictions and for improving projections of future climate change in the
tropics though advances in our understanding of the dynamics that govern
interbasin linkages. The role of the tropical Atlantic, in particular,
requires special attention because all climate models exhibit systemic
errors in the mean state of the tropical Atlantic that compromise their
reliability for use in studies of climate variability and change.
Projections based on the current generation of climate models suggest that
Pacific mean-state changes in the future will involve faster warming in the
east equatorial basin than in the surrounding regions, leading to an
increase in the frequency of extreme El Niños. Given the presumed strength
of the Atlantic influence on the pantropics, projections of future climate
change could be substantially different if systematic model errors in the
Atlantic were corrected. Progress on these issues will depend critically on
sustaining global climate observations; climate model improvements,
especially with regard to model biases; and theoretical developments that
help us to better understand the underlying dynamics of pantropical
interactions and their climatic impacts.

<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/363/6430/eaav4236/F1.large.jpg?wi
dth=800&height=600&carousel=1>
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/363/6430/eaav4236/F1.medium.gif

·
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wnload=true>  Download high-res image
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Open in new tab  <http://science.sciencemag.org/highwire/powerpoint/723177>
Download Powerpoint

Pantropical feedbacks affecting ENSO.

The black loop represents internal Pacific fast positive feedbacks (short
arrows) and delayed negative feedbacks (long arrows). Interbasin feedbacks
include Pacific feedbacks onto the Atlantic and Indian Oceans (blue arrows),
delayed negative feedbacks of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans onto the
Pacific (orange and green arrows, respectively), and positive feedbacks of
the Atlantic onto the Indian Ocean (yellow arrow). The effects of
atmospheric noise forcing in the Pacific are indicated by the gray dotted
line.

Abstract

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which originates in the Pacific, is
the strongest and most well-known mode of tropical climate variability. Its
reach is global, and it can force climate variations of the tropical
Atlantic and Indian Oceans by perturbing the global atmospheric circulation.
Less appreciated is how the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans affect the
Pacific. Especially noteworthy is the multidecadal Atlantic warming that
began in the late 1990s, because recent research suggests that it has
influenced Indo-Pacific climate, the character of the ENSO cycle, and the
hiatus in global surface warming. Discovery of these pantropical
interactions provides a pathway forward for improving predictions of climate
variability in the current climate and for refining projections of future
climate under different anthropogenic forcing scenarios.

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